Mesoscale Discussion 1977
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0222 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

   Areas affected...Southeastern Arizona and far southwestern New
   Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 231922Z - 232115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible
   as storm coverage increases this afternoon. A watch is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...With a moist airmass (upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints)
   being heated into the mid/upper 90s F, storms have initiated earlier
   than most guidance had suggested. Currently, objective mesoanalysis
   suggests between 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is present. Vertical shear,
   however, is quite weak under the influence of the upper ridge. The
   primary hazard will likely be severe wind gusts, particularly as
   additional heating should tend to mix dewpoints out to some extent.
   The strongest storms could also produce marginally severe hail as
   they peak in intensity.

   ..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/23/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

   LAT...LON   31191111 33241112 34091043 34020968 32950888 31260867
               31191111