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Mesoscale Discussion 2047
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   Mesoscale Discussion 2047
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0208 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2019

   Areas affected...far northeast KS...far southeast NE...far northwest
   MO...southwest IA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 011908Z - 012015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple of supercells may develop this afternoon into the
   early evening.  The risk for a tornado and isolated damaging gusts
   may maximize during the 4-7pm period.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a couple of storms developing in the
   open warm sector ahead of a stalled front draped across central KS
   northeast into parts of southeast NE and western IA.  A supercell
   has recently formed in Pawnee County, NE.  Surface temperatures have
   warmed into the lower-middle 80s with lower 70s dewpoints. 
   Objective analysis is indicating MLCAPE is around 1500-2000 J/kg.   

   Time-lagged RAP and 12z NAM forecast soundings are showing
   hodographs increasing through the afternoon.  Although hodograph
   size is not particularly large as of 2pm (when comparing area 88D
   VAD to their forecast hodograph counterparts), a narrow zone from
   northeast KS into southwest IA is forecast to undergo marked
   improvement in hodograph shape/size through 5-6pm.  As such, a risk
   for a tornado and isolated damaging gusts appears to be increasing.

   ..Smith/Hart.. 10/01/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40009731 41329510 41499400 41059392 39569657 39609718

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