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Mesoscale Discussion 2061
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   Mesoscale Discussion 2061
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1107 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2019

   Areas affected...northern High Plains

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 100407Z - 101000Z

   SUMMARY...Heavy snow and winter mixed precipitation behind the cold
   front will continue across the northern High Plains and slowly move
   eastward overnight. Lightning is expected to continue with the snow
   and winter mixed precipitation.

   DISCUSSION...A large, strong upper-level trough continues to move
   eastward out of the western CONUS and over the Plains tonight. An
   associated surface low will continue to deepen and begin to move
   northeast overnight across the Plains as a surface cold front slides
   southward across the High Plains. Strong frontogenetic forcing,
   steep lapse rates aloft, and MUCAPE of 200-750 J/kg will result in
   heavy snow with rates of 1-2+ inches per hour from northeast
   Colorado into southwest North Dakota overnight. CG/IC lightning is
   occurring across northeast Colorado, far southeast Wyoming, and far
   western Nebraska associated with convective snowfall within MUCAPE
   of 200-600 J/kg per mesoanalysis. Winter mixed precipitation
   including sleet is expected near the freezing line, although the
   primary threat will be heavy snow. Snow will eventually decrease
   from southwest to northeast with heavy snow expected across the
   Dakotas into tomorrow afternoon.

   ..Nauslar/Edwards.. 10/10/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   45770089 46200120 46510188 46650293 46340412 44530522
               41850630 41380656 40670603 40440527 40390462 41140297
               42080210 43660154 45770089 

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