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Mesoscale Discussion 2066
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   Mesoscale Discussion 2066
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0645 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019

   Areas affected...Southwest Missouri...northwest Arkansas...southeast
   Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 673...

   Valid 102345Z - 110145Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 673
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A few strong/severe storms remain possible through 8-9 PM
   CDT from southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. Isolated wind
   damage, marginally severe hail are the main threats. A brief window
   for isolated tornado activity exists, though boundary layer
   stabilization will lessen this threat with time. No downstream watch
   is planned. A local extension in time for portions of southeast
   Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas may be needed if intense storms
   appear likely to persist past 8 PM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...The overall intensity of storms in WW 673 has trended
   downward over the past 1-2 hours as boundary layer temperatures have
   continued to cool across the warm sector. A few strong/severe storms
   ongoing from southeast Oklahoma into portions of northwest Arkansas
   may continue through 8-9 PM CDT. Deep-layer wind fields will
   continue to support organized storms with around 40-50 kts of
   effective shear analyzed by objective mesoanalysis. KSGF/KSRX VAD
   profiles also show strong low-level shear with ample low-level
   hodograph curvature. A brief window for isolated tornado activity
   will exist until low-level thermodynamic profiles become
   increasingly unfavorable during the early evening. With the severe
   threat likely decreasing with time, a new downstream watch is not
   currently anticipated. The current watch is set to expire at 8 PM
   CDT. A local extension in time may be needed in portions of
   southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas should intense storms
   appear likely to persist beyond the scheduled expiration time.

   ..Wendt.. 10/10/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33799582 34609528 35019484 36009425 37769376 37949280
               36989246 34699396 33639487 33419552 33799582 

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Page last modified: October 11, 2019
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