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Mesoscale Discussion 2075 |
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Mesoscale Discussion 2075
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0910 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024
Areas affected...Portions of northern North Dakota
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 673...
Valid 170210Z - 170345Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 673
continues.
SUMMARY...Large hail and severe wind gusts remain possible across
portions of northern North Dakota -- within Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 673.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KMBX indicates a persistent
cluster of thunderstorms tracking eastward along an
east/west-oriented warm front/stationary boundary draped across
northern North Dakota. Along the southern periphery of the cluster,
a couple deeper/embedded rotating updrafts are evident, aided by
warmer/moister inflow south of the boundary, and
favorable/increasing low-level hodograph curvature (sampled by
regional VWP data). In the near-term, large hail (generally up to
1.75 inches) and locally severe wind gusts are the primary concerns
with these embedded supercell structures.
During the next few hours, this cluster of storms should maintain
its current intensity and organization as it continues generally
eastward along the boundary -- aided by mesoscale forcing associated
with an embedded MCV and a plume of low-level warm advection atop
the boundary. The primary severe risk may remain focused along the
southern periphery of the larger thunderstorm cluster, with less
certainty north of the boundary where low-level inhibition is
greater.
..Weinman.. 09/17/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 48040104 48410063 48769990 48899941 48939852 48749794
48249766 47849790 47759825 47600072 47690110 48040104
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