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Mesoscale Discussion 2104
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   Mesoscale Discussion 2104
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0149 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

   Areas affected...western Florida Panhandle into south-central
   Alabama

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 211849Z - 212115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated low-topped rotating showers are likely to
   continue developing in the northern Gulf of Mexico and across
   southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle through the
   afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A few low-topped showers have developed across southern
   Alabama and offshore from the western Florida Panhandle in the last
   1-2 hours. While no CG lightning has been observed (via Vaisala
   NLDN), these storms are weakly rotating via KEVX. Modest buoyancy is
   limiting the depth of these storms to around 10-13,000 feet with a
   subsidence layer residing around 800-675 mb per observations and
   mesoanalysis. High-level cirrus from the MCS to the west is limiting
   surface heating over the northern Gulf and central Gulf Coast, but
   enough instability is present to foster isolated convection. Deep
   layer shear (40-50 knots effective bulk shear) and low-level veering
   with height winds being enhanced by a wind shift/pseudo-warm front
   south of the Florida Panhandle, will likely result in rotating
   storms. A brief, weak tornado and strong wind gusts are possible
   with these discrete storms through the afternoon.

   ..Nauslar/Guyer.. 10/21/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

   LAT...LON   31648653 31028605 30718575 30408546 29978514 29818500
               29508496 29148499 29238550 29518748 30098744 31008732
               31538709 31648653 

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Page last modified: October 21, 2019
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