Mesoscale Discussion 2157
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0913 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024

   Areas affected...Western OK into parts of central/eastern KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 220213Z - 220345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to locally severe storms may persist
   through late evening.

   DISCUSSION...There has been some recent increase in storm
   coverage/intensity from western OK into central KS this evening,
   possibly in response to strengthening low-level warm advection (as
   inferred from the KVNX and KICT VWPs) to the south/east of a
   mid/upper-level cyclone near the NE/KS border. The window for
   surface-based development is likely limited due to increasing MLCINH
   with time and eastward extent, though a narrow zone of MUCAPE near
   or above 1000 J/kg could support a few stronger elevated storms
   through the late evening, in the presence of favorable deep-layer
   shear. Isolated hail and gusty winds will be possible with the
   strongest storms.

   ..Dean/Guyer.. 10/22/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   34829978 35019980 35329969 35949938 38149811 39689772
               39769671 39119662 37659697 36889728 35859829 35039905
               34659960 34829978