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Mesoscale Discussion 2157
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   Mesoscale Discussion 2157
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0851 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023

   Areas affected...central Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 685...

   Valid 161351Z - 161515Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 685

   SUMMARY...A couple of strong to severe gusts may persist another 1-2
   hours before thunderstorms weaken. A downstream watch is not
   currently expected.

   DISCUSSION...An overall weakening trend has been observed over the
   past 30-60 minutes with a bowing cluster of storms moving across the
   Concho Valley/central TX. Much of the trailing convection to the
   south/southwest of the apex has decreased in intensity
   substantially. However, a 44 kt gust was reported at SJT about an
   hour ago, and a gust to 64 kt was reported at the West Texas Mesonet
   site at Doole about 30 minutes ago. 

   The overall expectation is that convection will continue to weaken
   in a modestly unstable airmass characterized by weak vertical shear,
   poor lapse rates, and decreasing warm advection as storms continue
   to shift east/southeast. A couple of strong/severe gusts near the
   apex may persist in the short term, but a downstream watch is not
   currently expected.

   ..Leitman.. 09/16/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   31809954 31779830 31149773 30679779 30349811 30289896
               30569958 30930000 31209999 31519986 31809954 

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