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Mesoscale Discussion 2165
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   Mesoscale Discussion 2165
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0305 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

   Areas affected...Southern Iowa and far northern Missouri

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 693...

   Valid 302005Z - 302200Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 693
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A line of storms will continue to pose a risk of damaging
   winds across southern Iowa and far northern Missouri over the next
   few hours. However, downstream watch issuance is not currently
   anticipated given recent convective trends.

   DISCUSSION...An organized bowing segment with a history of producing
   severe winds continues to migrate across south-central IA. However,
   a decrease in vertically integrated ice, VIL, and echo top height
   has been noted over the past 30 minutes, suggesting that the severe
   wind threat may be decreasing in spatial extent and/or intensity to
   some degree. This is likely attributable to the QLCS meandering into
   a slightly more stable air mass where daytime heating has been muted
   due to preceding clouds and light rain. Despite these trends,
   gradual destabilization continues immediately downstream of the line
   and ahead of the cold front due to strong low-level warm/moist
   advection with MLCAPE estimates up to 500 J/kg per mesoanalysis and
   RAP forecast soundings. The combination of modest
   destabilization/ascent and favorable deep-layer, line-orthogonal
   wind shear may maintain the severe wind threat downstream through
   the remainder of WW 693. Additional watch issuance into
   southeast/eastern IA remains uncertain and will be conditional on
   convective trends over the next 1-2 hours.

   ..Moore.. 10/30/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   41459431 42289321 42459298 42499275 42479252 42399239
               42279228 41519209 40899209 40549230 40359263 40289311
               40459436 40639442 41049442 41459431 

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Page last modified: October 31, 2024
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