Mesoscale Discussion 2196
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0452 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024

   Areas affected...southeast Oklahoma into northeast Texas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 702...

   Valid 032252Z - 040115Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 702 continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat of damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes
   persists across the watch area, with perhaps a greater risk across
   the Red River Valley.

   DISCUSSION...A large mass of rain and thunderstorms currently
   extends form south-central OK into northern TX, oriented southwest
   to northeast and primarily north of the outflow boundary/stationary
   front. While favorable shear exists north of the boundary, cooler
   temperatures are mitigating the overall threat at this time.

   Farther south into TX, a very moist air mass is in place with PWAT
   ranging from 1.50 to 2.00" into northeast TX. Given continued
   southerly low-level flow, this warm advection regime will persist
   across the stationary front, which eventually may return north later
   this evening. 

   At this time, storms have shown a disorganized structure in terms of
   severe threat. However, the most favorable zone in a relative sense
   is across the Red River Valley and surrounding counties, as the
   ongoing activity translates east. Storm cores along the theta-e
   gradient may pose a risk of damaging winds with the bowing
   structures. Additional single-cells cannot be ruled out forming
   ahead of the main band of storms, as the air mass is uncapped. A
   brief tornado threat could occur with any activity interacting with
   the boundary. If the front begins moving north, then storms may
   acquire rotation along it over a longer period of time.

   ..Jewell.. 11/03/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33409790 34499659 34829601 34869544 34679482 34429460
               33729451 33419479 33399579 33239692 32969763 32989806
               33409790