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Mesoscale Discussion 2216
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   Mesoscale Discussion 2216
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0946 PM CDT Mon Oct 02 2023

   Areas affected...portions of far southeastern NM and west TX

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 697...

   Valid 030246Z - 030415Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 697

   SUMMARY...Hail and damaging wind gusts will remain possible over
   mainly southern portions of WW697.

   DISCUSSION...Across WW697, earlier convection has grown upscale into
   widespread  precipitation shield with embedded storms over much of
   the southwestern TX Panhandle. While occasional damaging gusts and
   an instance of hail will remain possible with the strongest storms,
   nocturnal stabilization and convective overturning appear to be
   limiting the severe threat. The severe risk appears concentrated
   over southern portions of the watch area with two supercells over
   Winkler and Lea Counties. Here, the air mass remains more unstable
   with approximately 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Located near the core of the
   intensifying low-level jet, enhanced convergence and ascent may
   allow severe convection to persist into the overnight hours. Should
   this occur, large hail and damaging gusts appear likely before
   storms shift farther east into a less favorable air mass.

   ..Lyons.. 10/03/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   31570349 31900361 32230366 32860348 33270266 33400225
               33050205 32560206 32030213 31540254 31520344 31570349 

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