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Mesoscale Discussion 2280
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   Mesoscale Discussion 2280
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1153 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023

   Areas affected...southern Mississippi into parts of eastern

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 210553Z - 210730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong may produce strong gusts or even a brief
   tornado, but the overall threat in the near term is not expected to
   warrant an additional watch.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have aggregated into a broken line from southern
   MS into southeast LA, with indications of gusts winds at times.
   Little rotation or supercell structures have been observed in the
   past hour, likely due to gradually veering low-level winds and
   decreasing ascent overall.

   Effective SRH around 300 m2/s2, a moist boundary layer and 500-1000
   J/kg MLCAPE still may yield a supercell, but perhaps short lived,
   with brief tornado potential. However, the overall threat does not
   appear high enough for an additional tornado watch at this time.

   Given the moist air mass and 40-50 kt low-level jet, convective
   trends will continue to be monitored for any increase in intensity

   ..Jewell.. 11/21/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   29729121 29909118 30809039 31518967 31848942 32058893
               32018860 31778833 31338816 30998826 30558861 29958960
               29759061 29739114 29729121 

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