STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 111300Z - 121200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS
   OF EXTREME NE NC...ERN VA...CNTRL/ERN PA...WRN/CNTRL NY...WRN
   NJ...WRN DE...CNTRL/ERN MD AND DC TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   20 ESE ECG 15 NNE RDU DAN CHO AOO DUJ 10 NNE ROC ...CONT...
   15 W MSS SLK 10 SE MSV TTN PHL DOV 20 ENE WAL.
   
   SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS
   TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE PBG 15 S PSF 25 ENE BDR
   ...CONT... 20 SSE SAV ABY 15 NW MOB BTR 10 S ESF 40 NNE HEZ CBM RMG
   5I3 HTS 15 ENE ZZV 15 E CLE.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE HVR
   45 ENE LWT 10 N SHR 60 SW GCC 35 SE LND 10 SE MLD 60 N ENV
   40 N EKO 35 N WMC 60 SE LMT 20 NNE MFR 10 NE AST 25 NE UIL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW BML 30 SW BHB
   ...CONT... 35 NNE SSI 25 SSW AYS 25 WNW TLH 20 E PNS ...CONT...
   15 ESE CRP 35 S LRD ...CONT... 35 SSE ELP 40 W CNM 35 NNW HOB
   40 SSW LBB 25 N ABI 25 ENE SEP 30 NE TYR 45 S PBF 35 NNE UOX
   20 NNE BNA 60 ENE BWG 20 NNW LEX 30 NNW LUK FWA 25 NW AZO
   30 WNW MKG 15 WSW OSH 25 NNW VOK 40 ENE EAU 15 SSW IWD 25 S CMX.
   
   DEEPENING LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
   WILL REACH PEAK INTENSITY THIS MORNING.  SURFACE OCCLUSION WILL
   PROCEED...AND CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN LATER TODAY/
   TONIGHT AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
   REGION.  MODELS SUGGEST EASTWARD ACCELERATION WILL BE IN RESPONSE
   TO AMPLIFICATION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
   ROCKIES...DOWNSTREAM OF DIGGING CLOSED LOW/TROUGH OFF THE CENTRAL
   PACIFIC COAST.
   
   ...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
   PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS ONGOING...BUT WEAKENING...WEST OF THE
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 
   ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD...
   DOWNSTREAM OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE LOWER
   OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY...AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER GREAT
   LAKES CYCLONE.  CONVECTIVE LINE APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH
   UPPER FORCING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS BY MID MORNING...BEFORE
   CONTINUING EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. 
   
   WHILE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS DOWNSTREAM OF SQUALL LINE MAY
   INHIBIT STRONG SURFACE HEATING...MID/UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS
   ADVECTING NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN VIRGINIA/MARYLAND IS EXPECTED
   TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BY LATE MORNING... WITH MEAN
   MIXED LAYER CAPE AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG.  THIS LIKELY WILL SUPPORT
   RE-INTENSIFICATION OF SQUALL LINE...WHICH MAY ACCELERATE INTO AREAS
   ALONG/EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AS 40
   TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY ACROSS
   THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.  POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH SQUALL LINE. 
   HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL BECOME ENHANCED
   AHEAD OF LINE...ALONG WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MARYLAND/
   SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...WHERE FORCING/DESTABILIZATION AND ENHANCED
   SHEAR WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES.
   
   BY LATE AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
   SOMEWHAT...BUT ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
   ALONG SURFACE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
   CENTRAL/EASTERN MARYLAND AND EASTERN VIRGINIA.
   
   ...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...
   LOWER/MID 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT AHEAD OF
   SURFACE FRONT INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK STATE...WHERE
   SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING BENEATH NOSE OF MID-LEVEL DRYING
   APPEARS POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...SUPPORTIVE OF
   VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN EXIT REGION OF SLOWLY WEAKENING
   ...BUT STILL STRONG...MID/UPPER JET NOSING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
   VALLEY IN THE 11/21Z-12/00Z TIME FRAME.  SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW
   IN WARM SECTOR ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE WILL ENHANCE
   SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
   AND STRENGTHENING WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW.  GIVEN WEAK TO MODERATE
   INSTABILITY...HODOGRAPHS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH
   A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ...SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST STATES...
   DAYTIME HEATING OF AIR MASS WITH LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION FROM PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
   INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.  THOUGH MID-
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...SURFACE-BASED CAPE OF 1000
   TO 2000 J/KG APPEARS POSSIBLE...IN MODERATELY STRONG AND SHEARED
   WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME.  DESPITE LACK OF MID/UPPER FORCING
   FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...CONVERGENCE NEAR SURFACE COLD FRONT/
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ONGOING SQUALL LINE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
   LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGEST CELLS.
    
   ..KERR/JEWELL.. 05/11/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z