HIGH PLAINS
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 292315Z - 301200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 ESE MHS 40 WNW MHS 30 NW MFR 40 WNW RDM 35 SW PDT 40 E BKE
70 SW BOI 10 NW BAM 45 NW U31 25 N RNO 45 ESE MHS.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 NNW ELO 25 SSE RST 15 W COU 50 NNW SGF 40 SW OJC 30 NW SUX
30 NNE ABR 70 NNW DVL.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SSW CRE 25 NNW FLO 25 ESE GSO 65 NNW RWI 25 NNE ORF.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 S MQM 25 NE DLN 30 E LVM 60 SW MLS 25 SW REJ 25 WSW HLC
20 WNW LAA 10 ENE LAR 45 ENE MLD 35 S MQM.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW FMY 20 SE
VRB.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW GBN 50 SE PHX
30 E SAD 40 SE DMN.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE CHS 40 SE AND
30 NNW CHA 20 SW LUK 35 NE FWA GRR 20 SSW HTL OSC.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW MQT
25 ESE MSN 15 SE UNO 25 ESE FYV 25 E BVO 40 WSW LNK BUB 40 SSW BBW
35 SW RSL 35 ENE CAO 15 NE 4SL 75 SSW 4BL 35 S EED 30 SSW TVL
20 SE RBL 10 SW EKA 20 NNW OTH 10 NNE YKM 40 NW 3HT 70 NW MLS
75 NW MOT.
...ERN ID/SRN MT/WY SSEWD TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER ERN ID/NWRN
WY AND TRACK ESEWD ACROSS THIS REGION INTO THE EVENING. WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER AND MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING MICROBURST WINDS. ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT
IS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WHERE A SIMILAR
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FAVORS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO SPC WW AND MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS FOR THIS REGION.
...PREVIOUS OUTLOOK ISSUED AT 20Z...
...CNTRL/ERN NC...NRN SC AND SERN VA...
A STRONG VORT MAX CONTINUES ESEWD THROUGH NC/VA. HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED TO THE COAST NEAR THE INITIAL CONVERGENCE
BAND. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND SURFACE
HEATING UNDERNEATH COLD AIR ALOFT IS SUPPORTING MLCAPES TO 1500
J/KG. STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SEWD...RESULTING IN
DECREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WITH TIME. HOWEVER...THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...LOW WET BULB ZERO
LEVELS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. ALSO...DESPITE BEING IN A DECREASING
TREND...DEEP SHEAR MAY REMAIN AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR MID
LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION OVER THE ERN PARTS OF NC/SC...WHICH WOULD
FURTHER ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN 25+ LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
SPREADS.
...ERN PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH UPPER/MID MS VALLEY...
SCATTERED STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER ERN PARTS OF SD INTO
NERN NE AND NWRN ID WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ALONG SWLY LOW
LEVEL JET. THESE STORMS APPEAR ELEVATED AND ROOTED ABOVE 3 KM. THE
ATMOSPHERE SW OF THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WARM AND DESTABILIZE
BUT REMAINS CAPPED. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN INTO THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING EXIT REGION
OF SEWD MOVING UPPER JET. STORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
IN THE ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND
TRANSPORTS INCREASINGLY HIGH THETA-E AIR EWD FROM THE DESTABILIZING
WARM SECTOR. IT APPEARS THE STORMS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED. HOWEVER...
SUFFICIENT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT UPDRAFT
ROTATION WHICH ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY SUGGEST THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. ALSO...THE BOUNDARY
APPEARS DRY ENOUGH FOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...ESPECIALLY IF
STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD.
...NRN CA AND NV THROUGH OR...
LARGE SCALE ASCENT/UPPER DIVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING NWD INTO CA/OR SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN CA/OR/NRN NEV.
STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS OCCURING OVER THIS AREA AND IS
CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION. SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR EXISTS FOR
HIGH BASED SUPERCELLS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEPLY MIXED
INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS. DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT
THROUGH EVENING.
..PETERS/DIAL.. 05/29/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z
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