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May-29-2003 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
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2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
      
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   HIGH PLAINS
   
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 292315Z - 301200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   45 ESE MHS 40 WNW MHS 30 NW MFR 40 WNW RDM 35 SW PDT 40 E BKE
   70 SW BOI 10 NW BAM 45 NW U31 25 N RNO 45 ESE MHS.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   45 NNW ELO 25 SSE RST 15 W COU 50 NNW SGF 40 SW OJC 30 NW SUX
   30 NNE ABR 70 NNW DVL.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   15 SSW CRE 25 NNW FLO 25 ESE GSO 65 NNW RWI 25 NNE ORF.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   35 S MQM 25 NE DLN 30 E LVM 60 SW MLS 25 SW REJ 25 WSW HLC
   20 WNW LAA 10 ENE LAR 45 ENE MLD 35 S MQM.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW FMY 20 SE
   VRB.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW GBN 50 SE PHX
   30 E SAD 40 SE DMN.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE CHS 40 SE AND
   30 NNW CHA 20 SW LUK 35 NE FWA GRR 20 SSW HTL OSC.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW MQT
   25 ESE MSN 15 SE UNO 25 ESE FYV 25 E BVO 40 WSW LNK BUB 40 SSW BBW
   35 SW RSL 35 ENE CAO 15 NE 4SL 75 SSW 4BL 35 S EED 30 SSW TVL
   20 SE RBL 10 SW EKA 20 NNW OTH 10 NNE YKM 40 NW 3HT 70 NW MLS
   75 NW MOT.
   
   ...ERN ID/SRN MT/WY SSEWD TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER ERN ID/NWRN
   WY AND TRACK ESEWD ACROSS THIS REGION INTO THE EVENING.  WELL MIXED
   BOUNDARY LAYER AND MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS WILL BE
   FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING MICROBURST WINDS.  ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT
   IS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WHERE A SIMILAR
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FAVORS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.   FOR
   ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO SPC WW AND MESOSCALE
   DISCUSSIONS FOR THIS REGION.
   
   ...PREVIOUS OUTLOOK ISSUED AT 20Z...
   ...CNTRL/ERN NC...NRN SC AND SERN VA...
   A STRONG VORT MAX CONTINUES ESEWD THROUGH NC/VA. HIGHER LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED TO THE COAST NEAR THE INITIAL CONVERGENCE
   BAND. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND SURFACE
   HEATING UNDERNEATH COLD AIR ALOFT IS SUPPORTING MLCAPES TO 1500
   J/KG. STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SEWD...RESULTING IN
   DECREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WITH TIME. HOWEVER...THE
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...LOW WET BULB ZERO 
   LEVELS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
   STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. ALSO...DESPITE BEING IN A DECREASING
   TREND...DEEP SHEAR MAY REMAIN AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR MID
   LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION OVER THE ERN PARTS OF NC/SC...WHICH WOULD
   FURTHER ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN 25+ LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
   SPREADS. 
   
   ...ERN PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH UPPER/MID MS VALLEY... 
   SCATTERED STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER ERN PARTS OF SD INTO
   NERN NE AND NWRN ID WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ALONG SWLY LOW
   LEVEL JET. THESE STORMS APPEAR ELEVATED AND ROOTED ABOVE 3 KM. THE
   ATMOSPHERE SW OF THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WARM AND DESTABILIZE
   BUT REMAINS CAPPED. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO
   STRENGTHEN INTO THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING EXIT REGION
   OF SEWD MOVING UPPER JET. STORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
   IN THE ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND
   TRANSPORTS INCREASINGLY HIGH THETA-E AIR EWD FROM THE DESTABILIZING
   WARM SECTOR. IT APPEARS THE STORMS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED. HOWEVER...
   SUFFICIENT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT UPDRAFT
   ROTATION WHICH ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE
   INSTABILITY SUGGEST THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. ALSO...THE BOUNDARY
   APPEARS DRY ENOUGH FOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...ESPECIALLY IF
   STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD.
   
   ...NRN CA AND NV THROUGH OR...
   LARGE SCALE ASCENT/UPPER DIVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH MOVING NWD INTO CA/OR SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
   FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN CA/OR/NRN NEV.
   STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS OCCURING OVER THIS AREA AND IS
   CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION. SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR EXISTS FOR
   HIGH BASED SUPERCELLS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEPLY MIXED
   INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS. DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT
   THROUGH EVENING.
   
   ..PETERS/DIAL.. 05/29/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z
        
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