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Apr- 6-2003 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Categorical Graphic
1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
      
 
Probabilistic Graphic (more info)
1730 Day 2 Prob Graphic
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   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   55 N BRO 35 ESE LRD COT 15 ENE SAT 10 N LFK 30 ENE SHV 50 E LIT
   40 WSW HOP 35 SE SDF 30 NNW JKL 20 S 5I3 10 NNE HSS 20 E SPA
   40 N FLO 25 SW GSB 15 E ECG ...CONT... 35 N SSI 30 N SSI PFN.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW DRT 30 ESE JCT
   TPL 50 SW TYR 30 WNW SHV 40 NNE LIT 35 S POF 30 ENE PAH 40 W SDF
   30 W LUK 30 E DAY 30 NW ZZV 30 SSW HLG 15 WSW EKN 30 NNE ROA
   25 ENE LYH 20 SE DCA 30 SE DOV ...CONT... MLB 10 SSW SRQ.
   
   
   
   ...TN VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES/SERN U.S...
   
   STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL
   WARM ADVECTION BENEATH UPPER DIFFLUENCE.  IT APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER
   MODIFICATION AND SOME SEMBLANCE OF A GULF SURGE WILL ADVECT NEWD
   EARLY IN PERIOD INTO PORTIONS OF ERN TN/KY...WHILE WEDGE OF MUCH
   COOLER AIR REMAINS ANCHORED EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE
   CAROLINAS.  WITH MASS CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD INTO THE
   MIDDLE ATLANTIC BY 18Z...EACH OF THESE TWO REGIONS SHOULD HAVE A
   MORNING-MID DAY MAXIMUM IN CONVECTION BEFORE LOW LEVELS FOCUS WELL
   WEST IN RESPONSE TO LATE NIGHT HEIGHT FALLS.  CAROLINA BOUNDARY MAY
   PROVE RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID DAY AS
   HIGHER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY RETURNS TO COASTAL REGIONS.
   
   MORE SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP UPSTREAM FROM
   SERN TX/LA INTO PORTIONS OF MS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
   PERIOD...POSSIBLY BEGINNING BY LATE AFTERNOON.  IT APPEARS STRONG
   DIURNAL HEATING WILL ENHANCE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION WITH
   AFTERNOON SBCAPES EXPECTED TO EXCEED 3000 J/KG.  APPROACHING HEIGHT
   FALLS MAY ENHANCE VEERED LLJ FROM SERN LA INTO ERN MS.  THIS SHOULD
   MAINTAIN ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM WITHIN UNCAPPED AIR
   MASS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  ACTIVITY MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT
   AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUSTAINED
   UPDRAFTS. 
    
   ..DARROW.. 04/06/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z
        
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