STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
55 N BRO 35 ESE LRD COT 15 ENE SAT 10 N LFK 30 ENE SHV 50 E LIT
40 WSW HOP 35 SE SDF 30 NNW JKL 20 S 5I3 10 NNE HSS 20 E SPA
40 N FLO 25 SW GSB 15 E ECG ...CONT... 35 N SSI 30 N SSI PFN.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW DRT 30 ESE JCT
TPL 50 SW TYR 30 WNW SHV 40 NNE LIT 35 S POF 30 ENE PAH 40 W SDF
30 W LUK 30 E DAY 30 NW ZZV 30 SSW HLG 15 WSW EKN 30 NNE ROA
25 ENE LYH 20 SE DCA 30 SE DOV ...CONT... MLB 10 SSW SRQ.
...TN VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES/SERN U.S...
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION BENEATH UPPER DIFFLUENCE. IT APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER
MODIFICATION AND SOME SEMBLANCE OF A GULF SURGE WILL ADVECT NEWD
EARLY IN PERIOD INTO PORTIONS OF ERN TN/KY...WHILE WEDGE OF MUCH
COOLER AIR REMAINS ANCHORED EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. WITH MASS CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD INTO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC BY 18Z...EACH OF THESE TWO REGIONS SHOULD HAVE A
MORNING-MID DAY MAXIMUM IN CONVECTION BEFORE LOW LEVELS FOCUS WELL
WEST IN RESPONSE TO LATE NIGHT HEIGHT FALLS. CAROLINA BOUNDARY MAY
PROVE RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID DAY AS
HIGHER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY RETURNS TO COASTAL REGIONS.
MORE SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP UPSTREAM FROM
SERN TX/LA INTO PORTIONS OF MS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD...POSSIBLY BEGINNING BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS STRONG
DIURNAL HEATING WILL ENHANCE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION WITH
AFTERNOON SBCAPES EXPECTED TO EXCEED 3000 J/KG. APPROACHING HEIGHT
FALLS MAY ENHANCE VEERED LLJ FROM SERN LA INTO ERN MS. THIS SHOULD
MAINTAIN ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM WITHIN UNCAPPED AIR
MASS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT
AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS.
..DARROW.. 04/06/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z
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