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May-16-2003 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
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1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
      
 
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1730 Day 2 Prob Graphic
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   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
   
   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   40 NNE LAR 20 SW DGW 50 NE DGW 25 WSW RAP 55 SSE Y22 20 N MBG
   45 ENE MBG 30 SW ABR 15 NNW 9V9 30 NNE MHN 40 SW MHN 25 NE SNY
   25 ENE CYS 40 NNE LAR.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   15 NW ELD 10 NW DYR 30 NW HOP 45 NNE BWG 40 WNW LOZ 20 WSW LOZ
   30 WNW TYS 55 SSW TYS 35 N AHN 30 ESE AND CAE 35 ESE AGS
   65 ESE MCN 15 SSE CSG 30 SSW SEM 40 SE LUL 25 W MSY 40 WSW 7R4
   30 S BPT 25 NNE HOU 15 W LFK 25 SW SHV 15 NW ELD.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW SHR 35 W DIK
   45 NE DVL 10 ESE TVF 15 SSW AXN 20 SW ANW 35 NE AKO 20 SSE LIC
   30 SW COS ASE 25 NW GJT 30 WNW 4HV 50 SW DPG 55 NNE ENV 20 SSW JAC
   40 NNW SHR.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CRP 40 NW ALI
   20 S SAT 35 E TPL 15 SW PRX 10 NW UMN 40 NNW STL 20 SW MIE
   25 N PSK 20 WSW HKY 10 SSW ILM.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD
   INTO THE LOWER MS VLY AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
   NIGHT.  UPSTREAM...A COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE SWD INTO THE
   NWRN STATES WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING NEWD
   FROM THE PAC NW INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.  AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
   LOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN INVOF CNTRL AR WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NWD
   INTO THE TN VLY.  A WEDGE OF COOLER AIR WILL SLIDE SWD INTO THE SRN
   APPALACHIANS.  MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM...SEVERAL SURGES OF COOLER AIR
   WILL FOLLOW EACH SUCCESSIVE MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT PASSES NEWD
   ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   
   ...LWR MS VLY NEWD INTO THE SERN STATES...
   SEVERE FOCUS BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE DIFFUSE WITH TIME ON SATURDAY
   THAN OBSERVED IN PREVIOUS DAYS GIVEN THAT THE UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS
   TO WEAKEN.  THE ANTICIPATED WEAKENING TREND WILL PROBABLY BE AT A
   SLOWER PACE THAN REPRESENTED BY SHORT TERM MODELS.  MORNING FOCUS
   FOR POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE FROM
   THE FRIDAY NIGHT ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES ENEWD INTO PARTS OF WRN
   TN/NRN MS/SRN KY ON NOSE OF 40-45 KT SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET.  THIS
   ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING AS IT MOVES BEYOND THE
   STRONGEST MASS CONVERGENCE.
   
   DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR TSTMS TO
   DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/COLD FRONT NEAR THE MS RVR FROM
   ERN AR/W TN SWD INTO PARTS OF NRN LA AND EWD INTO THE TN VLY. 
   STRONGEST MIDLEVEL FLOW SHOULD EXIST ACROSS THE MS DELTA NEWD INTO
   NRN AL/TN AND COULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS GIVEN MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-
   2500 J/KG.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE
   SEVERE THREATS.  FARTHER S AND SW...INCREASING MIDLEVEL CAP AND
   WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREATS INTO ERN TX
   AND TOWARD THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COASTAL AREAS. 
   
   ANOTHER MAXIMUM IN SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST ALONG SRN PERIPHERY
   OF THE WEDGE FRONT ACROSS NRN GA INTO PARTS OF SC.  WARM SECTOR
   SHOULD DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG.  DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR WILL INITIALLY BE WEAK...BUT SHOULD INCREASE AS UPPER JET
   STREAK APPROACHES THE REGION DURING THE EVENING.  THE ONLY NEGATIVE
   SEEMS TO BE THAT MOST OF THE MASS CONVERGENCE WILL BE POINTED MORE
   INTO THE TN VLY THAN POINTS TO THE EAST.
   
   ...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   UPPER DIFFLUENCE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY
   EVENING BENEATH COUPLED JET STREAKS.  LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESPOND
   WITH A MODEST SLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING...AIDING IN LOW-MIDLEVEL
   FRONTOGENESIS.  HEATING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD AID IN HIGH
   BASED TSTMS ACROSS THE WY MOUNTAINS AND BLACK HILLS SATURDAY
   AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD MOVE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
   EVENING.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELLS...AND
   IF A FEW TSTMS CAN ROOT INTO THE INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. 
   ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP/MOVE NEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO
   SD AND PERHAPS ND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN ONE OR MORE
   CLUSTERS.   
   
   ..RACY.. 05/16/03
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z
        
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