SPC AC 051946
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0146 PM CST MON JAN 05 2004
   
   VALID 052000Z - 061200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE 7R4 SEM 15 WNW
   LGC 35 NNW AHN CLT RIC 20 ESE SBY ...CONT... SSI VLD AQQ.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
   LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY...CONTINUES TO LIFT EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF BASE OF
   LARGER-SCALE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. SMALLER-SCALE
   FEATURE APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF ENHANCED ASCENT IN
   FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE GULF STATES...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE
   CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE
   CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.  
   
   LAPSE RATES IN BAROCLINIC ZONE ABOVE SURFACE FRONT ARE WEAK...BUT
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH HAS ADVECTED NORTHWARD ON LOW-LEVEL JET OFF
   THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK CAPE.  THIS WILL
   LIKELY REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
   REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE
   WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GEORGIA.  STRONGER
   FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL ...HOWEVER...SHIFT INTO THE
   MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES BY EARLY EVENING.  AS THIS OCCURS... 
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BECOME FOCUSED NEAR/JUST AHEAD OF WEAK
   WAVE ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA/EASTERN NORTH
   CAROLINA.  THOUGH WIND FIELDS/SHEAR IN WARM SECTOR ARE STRONG...WEAK
   UPDRAFTS AND LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR
   DOWNDRAFTS LIKELY ARE EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE SEVERE THREAT.
   
   ..KERR.. 01/05/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z