SPC AC 261308
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0708 AM CST MON JAN 26 2004
   
   VALID 261300Z - 271200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE
   MLB SRQ ...CONT... 35 S GPT MGM MCN SSI.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE HUM 45 ESE MEI
   CBM 30 SE PBF ARG MVN 30 SE MIE UNI 30 SW HSS 25 SSE SPA 20 SW FAY
   30 ESE EWN.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SRN/SERN AL...FL
   PANHANDLE...SRN GA...CENTRAL/NRN FL...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   IN MIDDLE-UPPER LEVELS...HIGH-AMPLITUDE LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER
   CENTRAL CONUS WILL DOMINATE FLOW ALOFT FROM COAST TO COAST.  INTENSE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY ENTERING
   WRN TX PANHANDLE -- IS FCST TO FOLLOW CYCLONICALLY CURVING PATH
   ACROSS OK/OZARKS TO LOWER OH VALLEY BY END OF PERIOD.
   
   AT SFC...COMPLEX PATTERN ANALYZED WITH FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLONE OFFSHORE
   ILM...ARCTIC FRONT SWWD TO SERN GA THEN WNWWD TO ANOTHER WAVE OVER
   SRN AL.  CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/ACTIVITY BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THAT LOW
   SWD ACROSS SERN CORNER OF MS...AND IS FCST TO SHIFT EWD TODAY. GA
   FRONT SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY IN MOST AREAS...PERHAPS DRIFTING
   NWD OVER SWRN/S-CENTRAL GA AMIDST STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA.  OCCLUDED
   SFC LOW NOW OVER OZARKS WILL MOVE NEWD TOWARD INDIANA BY END OF
   PERIOD...WHILE WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NWD ACROSS TN/KY.  COLD FRONT
   WILL SWEEP SEWD FROM PRESENT POSITION OVER N-CENTRAL TX...REACHING
   GA AND NW FL BY 27/12Z.
   
   ...SERN CONUS...
   REF WW 2 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST SITUATION
   OVER MUCH OF WRN PORTION OF CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK AREA.  EXPECT
   SEVERE POTENTIAL TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD THROUGH TODAY THEN ACROSS
   PORTIONS NRN/CENTRAL FL TONIGHT.  ARCTIC FRONTAL WEDGE ACROSS
   CAROLINAS/ERN GA SHOULD LIMIT NEWD EXTENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL.
   
   VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN PRECONVECTIVE WARM SECTOR WILL FAVOR BOTH
   SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES...ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WIND AND
   POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
   INSOLATION...EXPECT WAA AND WEAK DIABATIC HEATING TO OFFSET MARGINAL
   LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND CONTRIBUTE 400-800 J/KG MLCAPE OVER FL
   PANHANDLE/SERN AL AND SWRN GA. 70-80 KT SHEAR IN 0-6 KM LAYER AND
   150-250 J/KG 0-3 KM SRH IN WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT STORM ROTATION. 
   LOW LCL AND FAVORABLE LOW-MIDLEVEL SR FLOWS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A
   FEW TORNADIC STORMS.  FURTHERMORE...TSTMS CROSSING FRONT OVER GA MAY
   ENCOUNTER NARROW JUXTAPOSITION OF ZONE WHERE SBCAPE STILL
   EXISTS...YET VERTICAL SHEAR AND SR INFLOW ARE STRONGLY ENHANCED BY
   BACKED WINDS IN LOWEST 1 KM.  BRIEF INTENSIFICATION OF STORM
   ROTATION AND TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY OCCUR.  AS CONVECTION MOVES OVER
   PROGRESSIVELY DEEPER LAYER OF STATICALLY STABLE AIR...UPDRAFT
   DEPTH/INTENSITY AND DCAPE SHOULD EACH  DECREASE.  THEREFORE SEVERE
   PROBABILITIES ALSO DIMINISH WITH NEWD EXTENT.
   
   SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EXTEND TEMPORALLY INTO LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
   FL...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SEWD EXTENT THROUGH PENINSULA.
   INCREASING WLY FLOW COMPONENT FROM GULF WILL SERVE OFFSETTING ROLES
   TONIGHT OVER FL -- FIRST...TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL THETAE/BUOYANCY
   THROUGH MOIST/WARM ADVECTION OFF GULF...BUT SECOND...TO REDUCE
   BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE.  LATTER SHOULD BECOME MORE DOMINANT AS
   BOUNDARY SHIFTS SEWD THROUGH FL...BUT BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...DAMAGING
   WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.
   
   ...LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS REGION...
   WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT
   OVER THIS REGION AS DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND FRONTAL FORCING
   COMBINE TO WEAKEN CINH.  INCREASING LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION
   ALOFT -- PARTICULARLY INVOF SFC LOW...MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO
   CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...THOUGH STRONGEST MIDLEVEL ASCENT IS EXPECTED
   BEHIND SFC FRONT.  FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND 300-600
   J/KG MLCAPE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT HAIL-PRODUCING TSTMS FROM
   LOWER OH VALLEY SEWD ACROSS PORTION WRN/MID TN INTO NRN AL. 
   THEREFORE MARGINAL HAIL PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED THAT WAY. 
   ONE NEGATIVE FACTOR IN THIS SCENARIO IS DELAY IN ARRIVAL OF
   SIGNIFICANT MID-UPPER LEVEL LARGE SCALE FORCING UNTIL AFTER SFC
   FROPA...AND ANOTHER WILL BE LACK OF GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE. 
   THESE WILL COMBINE TO KEEP PREFRONTAL/DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES JUST
   SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOIST ADIABATIC...LIMITING BUOYANCY.
   
   ..EDWARDS/CROSBIE.. 01/26/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z