SPC AC 291948
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 PM CST THU JAN 29 2004
VALID 292000Z - 301200Z
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CRP NIR CLL 65
NNE CLL SHV ESF BTR 35 SSE HUM.
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...ERN/SERN TX AND WRN/SRN LA...
CONVECTION IS ON THE INCREASE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE UPPER
TX COAST AND THE SABINE RVR VLY MOST LIKELY AIDED BY A WEAK
LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE THAT HAS EJECTED NEWD AHEAD OF MAIN VORT
CENTER MOVING THROUGH NRN CHIHUAHUA. CHARACTER OF THE CLOUDS
SUGGESTS THAT A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITHIN ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT...THOUGH LAPSE RATES ON NOSE OF THE
EML ARE RATHER POOR. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AND ALSO DEVELOP NEWD INTO SRN LA OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS UPSTREAM
VORT MAX MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. STRONGER TSTMS WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE OVER THE WRN GULF BASIN WHERE AIR MASS WILL BE MORE
UNSTABLE.
...SWRN TX...
VSBL SATELLITE SHOWS ENHANCED CUMULIFORM CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE
MTS OF SWRN TX AND NRN CHIHUAHUA WHERE H5 THERMAL TROUGH IS
COINCIDENT WITH STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ISOLD LIGHTNING WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS THE VORT MAX MOVES SEWD INTO SWRN TX/NERN MX THIS
EVENING...BUT SPARSE COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE A GENERAL TSTM THREAT
AREA.
..RACY.. 01/29/2004
...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z
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