SPC AC 220608
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1208 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2004
   
   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW
   PSX 40 ENE COT 45 WSW HDO 35 NNE DRT 50 SSW SJT 25 WNW SJT 45 WSW
   ABI 10 NW ABI 15 SW MWL 20 SW TYR 15 ENE POE 15 SSW BTR 10 NE HUM 40
   SE HUM.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CRP 30 NW LRD
   ...CONT... 70 WNW MRF 10 WSW CNM 35 W AMA 30 NNW GAG 15 SW P28 30 N
   PNC 35 ENE BVO 25 NW FYV 25 WSW HOT 20 ENE ELD 30 W LUL 30 SW PNS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SBA 15 E PMD 40 S PRC
   50 E PHX 45 WSW SAD 10 SE DUG.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL TX...ERN
   TX AND SRN LA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE WEST COAST
   RESULTING IN SWIFT SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE SRN US. AT THE SFC...LOW
   PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS TODAY.
   
   ...CNTRL AND SERN TX/SRN LA...
   SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH 60+ SFC
   DEWPOINTS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
   STRENGTHEN TODAY BRINGING THE MOISTURE INLAND RAISING SFC DEWPOINTS
   INTO THE 50S F ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND UPPER TX COAST. AS SFC
   TEMPS WARM THIS AFTERNOON...SOME INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
   HILL COUNTRY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD INITIATE ISOLATED
   CONVECTION ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE
   RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM ALONG WITH COLD 500 MB TEMPS OF -16 TO -18 C
   AND 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT
   WILL EXIST. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP SEVERE COVERAGE
   ISOLATED ACROSS WCNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON. 
   
   A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE WRN COAST OF BAJA CA AS SEEN ON WATER
   VAPOR IMAGERY WILL CROSS NRN MEXICO TODAY AND AFFECT THE HILL
   COUNTRY BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE LARGE SCALE ASCENT THIS
   EVENING ACROSS SCNTRL TX THIS EVENING PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AS A LOW-LEVEL JET TAKES SHAPE AND MOISTURE
   ADVECTION STRENGTHENS DURING THE EVENING...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY MOST LIKELY ACROSS
   SCNTRL TEXAS EXTENDING FROM AREAS SOUTH OF SAN ANTONIO EWD TO THE
   COAST NEAR PORT LAVACA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS CORRIDOR SHOW
   MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING RESULTING IN A
   SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE OR HAIL APPEARS LIKELY AS
   THE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO SE TX AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
   THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST ALONG THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TX COAST WHERE DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOES. AS THE CONVECTION SPREADS EWD ACROSS SRN
   LA AND BECOMES MORE LINEAR LATE TONIGHT...WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE
   MAIN THREAT
   
   ..BROYLES/CROSBIE.. 02/22/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z