SPC AC 011254
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0654 AM CST MON MAR 01 2004
   
   VALID 011300Z - 021200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE
   UIN 50 W CID 20 NW ALO 45 SSW LSE 25 ENE MSN 20 SW MKG 10 ESE SBN 30
   SW BMG 40 W EVV 20 SE BLV 40 ENE UIN.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW PSX 45 SE AUS
   60 SSW TYR 25 SSW LIT 30 ENE ARG 30 N POF 50 ENE COU 15 E IRK 55 WNW
   LWD 35 NE SUX 15 N RWF 25 W ANJ ...CONT... 20 WSW ERI 25 SSW PKB 15
   E CSV 45 NE MEI 30 NNE BTR 35 S LCH.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW OTH 60 NNW SVE
   10 W TVL 40 NE NID 30 NE DRA 30 SE SGU 30 WNW PRC 15 SSE YUM.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN IA EWD INTO SWRN MI
   AND THEN SWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MID-LEVEL LOW /EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER ERN NEB EARLY
   THIS MORNING/ IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND EJECT NEWD
   THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM
   HEIGHT RISES OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. IN THE LOW-LEVELS... CONCOMITANT
   SURFACE LOW OVER ERN NEB WILL PROGRESSIVELY FILL AS IT LIFTS NEWD
   ACROSS IA AND INTO SRN WI BY THIS EVENING...WHILE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC
   COLD FRONT PUSHES EWD TO NEAR THE MS RIVER BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   
   ...SRN GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...
   NWD ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING
   THROUGH THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY WITH A NARROW AXIS OF 50 DEGREE
   DEWPOINTS INTO W-CNTRL IL AS OF 12Z. AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO
   90-120M HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES AHEAD
   OF OPENING UPPER WAVE SHOULD MAINTAIN STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW E OF
   MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW WITH 50-55F DEWPOINTS BEING ADVECTED NWD
   THROUGH IL/IND LATER TODAY. THIS INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   BENEATH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM /ASSOCIATED
   WITH REGION OF STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF
   300-600 J/KG WITHIN MID/UPPER DRY SLOT...E OF SURFACE LOW AND
   ATTENDANT COLD FRONT FROM ERN IA/SRN WI SWD/EWD ACROSS IL AND
   POSSIBLY INTO WRN IND/SWRN MI THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ONGOING SHALLOW CONVECTION INVOF
   SURFACE/UPPER LOWS OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND
   INTENSIFY LATER THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS IT ENCOUNTERS
   INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
   POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON SWD ALONG COLD FRONT...WITH THE SWD EXTENT
   LIKELY BEING DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF AIRMASS RECOVERY THAT CAN
   TAKE PLACE IN WAKE OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION BAND FROM WRN IND SWWD
   ACROSS SRN IL INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
   
   BELT OF 40-45KT SWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS E/SE OF MID-LEVEL LOW
   INCREASING TO 80-90KTS WITHIN MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ALONG THE OH
   RIVER WILL PROVIDE MORE THAN ENOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR
   ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS INCLUDING LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS. LARGE
   HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GIVEN THE LOW
   WBZH/COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /I.E. -22 TO -25C AT 500MB/ INVOF
   OPENING UPPER WAVE AND SUFFICIENTLY STRONG SHEAR THROUGH THE
   BUOYANCY LATER. IN ADDITION...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
   WILL INCREASE EWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA /I.E. CNTRL/ERN IL
   INTO WRN IND/ OWING TO STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /250-350 M2/S2 0-1KM
   SRH/ COINCIDENT WITH LLJ AXIS.
   
   CLUSTERS OF TSTMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP EWD/NEWD ACROSS LOWER MI AND
   NRN IND TONIGHT WITHIN REGION OF STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING.
   ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY WITH THE LOSS OF
   DAYTIME HEATING...ISOLATED HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST
   INTENSE STORMS.
   
   ..MEAD/CROSBIE.. 03/01/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z