SPC AC 111618
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE
   1018 AM CST THU MAR 11 2004
   
   VALID 111630Z - 121200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN PRC 35 NE
   FLG GUP 35 SSE 4CR 25 W HOB 55 SE MAF 45 NNE JCT 50 WSW TPL 60 SSW
   CLL VCT 40 S CRP.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURES A STRONG 500MB COLD CORE LOW THAT WAS
   MOVING ACROSS MN INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES AT 12Z WITH A CLASSIC
   COMMA CLOUD PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
   FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE MIDWEST SWWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY WWD
   ACROSS OK AND NRN TX.  STABLE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM 
   WOULD PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS
   
   A DEVELOPING CLOSED 500MB COLD CORE LOW WAS OVER THE NRN GULF OF CA
   AREA...HOWEVER UPPER WIND FIELDS REMAIN QUITE WEAK.  THIS SYSTEM IS
   EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO THROUGH THE FORECAST
   PERIOD.  
   
   ...SERN AZ/SWRN NM/WRN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/S TX...
   DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW HAS MAINTAINED AN AREA OF CONVECTION THIS
   MORNING FROM ERN AZ INTO SRN NM AND SWD INTO MEXICO.  THIS PATTERN
   IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND WILL SPREAD FARTHER EWD INTO PORTIONS OF
   S TX THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  MORNING
   STABILITY CHART INDICATES TOTAL TOTALS OF 44-52 ACROSS THIS AREA
   WITH SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES ALSO NOTED.  DIMINISHING CLOUDS OVER
   SERN AZ SUGGEST STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES WITH A RESULTANT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED DOWNBURST WITHIN
   AREA OF LARGER SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS.  LIMITED
   COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE RISK AREA.  
   
   TO THE EAST...ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF DEEP S
   TX...MORNING SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S...
   ALTHOUGH THERE WAS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AS SEEN IN SATELLITE
   IMAGERY.  AS THE NRN BAJA UPPER LOW PROGRESSES EWD...EXPECT TSTMS TO
   DEVELOP OVER MEXICO AND MOVE SLOWLY EWD AND SPREAD INTO S TX WHERE
   MAIN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS EXISTS.
   
   ..AFWA.. 03/11/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 2000Z