SPC AC 161950
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0150 PM CST TUE MAR 16 2004
   
   VALID 162000Z - 171200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AQQ VLD 60 N AYS AGS
   AND AVL 50 N HKY 40 SE PSK LYH 10 S DCA BWI PHL 20 ESE NEL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PSX NIR COT 65 W COT
   ...CONT... 85 SSW P07 15 NE MRF MAF ABI GGG 35 NW POE 25 SSW BPT.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...EASTERN STATES...
   WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...PRIMARY
   CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALREADY APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED OFF THE
   ATLANTIC COAST.  THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH INFLUX OF
   LOW-LEVEL GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AND MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE...
   AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN
   SUBTROPICAL JET.  WITH BETTER MOISTURE OFFSHORE...AND SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE UPPER OHIO
   VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...PROSPECTS FOR ADDITIONAL
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN REMAINING SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES WARM
   SECTOR APPEARS LIMITED.
   
   DESPITE SUBSIDENT/DRYING WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
   APPALACHIANS...SURFACE HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO WEAK
   DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THIS
   MAY STILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY
   THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
   MOTION IS PROGGED TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN BAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
   MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...AS SHARPENING UPSTREAM LARGE-SCALE
   TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
   
   AS CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE
   THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH
   MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST...AND ANY LINGERING
   CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH.
   
   ...TEXAS...
   UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE
   HIGH PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK DIGGING ACROSS THE
   NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES.  SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID/UPPER
   FORCING IS CURRENTLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. 
   HOWEVER....MODELS SUGGEST THIS FORCING WILL BEGIN SHIFTING MORE
   RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/
   TONIGHT.
   
   WITH PERHAPS BRIEF SUPPORT OF UPPER SYSTEM...MID-LEVEL CAPPING MAY
   BE OVERCOME AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON NEAR/SOUTH OF SURFACE FRONT WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH
   CENTRAL/WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.  BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...SURFACE HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AROUND
   1000 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION.  GIVEN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW REGIME...INSTABILITY
   MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO...PRIMARILY
   WITH THREAT OF LARGE HAIL.
   
   POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO
   COOL/STABILIZE.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/16/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z