SPC AC 221629
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CST MON MAR 22 2004
VALID 221630Z - 231200Z
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW FHU 45 ESE PHX
CDC 50 WNW OGD 30 NNW TWF 45 E BNO 45 WNW BNO 70 WSW BNO 60 NNE SVE
50 SW SVE 25 ENE UKI 45 W RBL 30 NNE PDX 20 N SEA 40 NE SEA 35 W EAT
20 W LWS 50 N 27U 25 NNW WEY 20 E JAC 45 W EGE 50 WNW ALS 50 NNW LVS
40 SW ROW 30 SW P07.
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NEWD THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ALLOWING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES TO DE-AMPLIFY WHILE
UPPER LEVEL COOLING AND HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD INTO THE PACIFIC NW. TO
THE SOUTH...WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SERN AZ
AND SRN NM.
...SRN AZ / NM...
MOISTURE WITH UPPER LOW ALONG WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER SERN AZ INTO THE MTNS OF E CENTRAL AZ /
WRN NM. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE FROM FGZ
TO TUS TO ABQ WHICH WILL YIELD WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES LESS
THAN 500 J/KG.
THICK CLOUDS MIGHT HAMPER DEVELOPMENT OVER EXTREME SRN NM AND SWRN
TX...BUT SELY UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH SMALL
INSTABILITY BENEATH UPPER LOW MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
COVERAGE INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SRN NM / SWRN TX.
...PACIFIC NW INTO ERN GREAT BASIN...
UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
ZONAL MID LEVEL JET NOSES INTO NRN CA BY 12Z TUE. LARGE SCALE LIFT
AND ASSOCIATED COOLING ALOFT WILL CAUSE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP FROM NRN CA INTO THE CASCADES BY THIS EVENING EXPANDING EWD
INTO ID AND EVENTUALLY THE NERN GREAT BASIN BY TUE MORNING. CHANCES
OF THUNDER IN THESE AREAS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 10 PERCENT. HIGHEST
PROBS WILL BE OVER NRN UT LATE PERIOD...WHERE STRONGEST LIFT WILL
EXIST BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
..JEWELL / EVANS.. 03/22/2004
...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 2000Z
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