SPC AC 241306
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0706 AM CST WED MAR 24 2004
   
   VALID 241300Z - 251200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE DVL 25 ESE ABR
   20 ENE HON 15 W FSD 30 WNW FRM 10 N OSC ...CONT... 30 ENE CLE 15 S
   CAK 20 NW ZZV 30 WSW CMH 40 WSW DAY 15 NW HUF BLV 45 NW POF 10 S LIT
   30 SW MLU 20 NE ESF 35 SSW HEZ 40 NNE MSY 20 S GPT ...CONT... 60 SW
   MRF 15 SSW MAF 40 NNW BGS 15 ENE PVW 35 E DHT 40 ENE CAO 30 ESE RTN
   20 NE LVS 25 SW 4SL 20 N GUP 70 WSW FMN 25 SE U24 45 N ENV 35 WSW
   BOI 55 SSW PDT 45 ESE DLS 40 N ONP.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...ERN NEB...
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AS A WARM FRONT
   MOVES NWD ACROSS THE REGION. SFC DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE 50S F
   ACROSS ERN KS...SHOULD ADVECT NWD INTO ERN NEB BY LATE AFTERNOON.
   SFC HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE
   REACHING 1500 J/KG ALONG AN AXIS FROM NWRN KS TO FAR SERN SD. A
   VORTICITY MAX IS CURRENTLY OVER SRN WY AND NRN CO. AS THIS FEATURE
   MOVES EWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE
   ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
   STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
   PREVENT CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE
   LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCES OVER ERN NEB. THE GFS AND ETAKF ARE FAIRLY
   CONSISTENT...DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS CNTRL NEB
   AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SPREADING IT EWD ACROSS ERN NEB AND INTO WRN IA
   LATE TONIGHT. LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE STEEP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
   COUPLED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 30
   TO 40 KT ACROSS ERN NEB AND IA...WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. IF THE FORECAST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AND THE
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR ENDS UP BEING GREATER THAN FORECAST...AN UPGRADE TO
   SLIGHT RISK MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER TODAY.
   
   ...W TX...
   A BROAD BELT OF SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AHEAD OF A
   SFC TROUGH IN WRN KS EXTENDING SWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND ERN NM.
   AS A VORTICITY MAX EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...APPROACHES FROM
   THE WEST TODAY...THE SFC TROUGH SHOULD DEEPEN AND A DRYLINE SHOULD
   DEVELOP ACROSS ERN NM...MIXING EWD INTO WEST TX BY LATE AFTERNOON.
   AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO
   MID 50S F...RESULTING IN A NORTH TO SOUTH AXIS OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING SWD TO THE DEL RIO
   AREA.
   
   ETAKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS WEST TX SHOW A CAPPING INVERSION
   DEVELOPING OVER THE INSTABILITY AXIS BY MIDDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
   AS TO WHETHER THE CAP WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW
   FOR STORM INITIATION. SFC HEATING WITH TEMPS REACHING THE 80S F WILL
   CAUSE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS
   MORNINGS CONVECTION AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE WHERE CONVERGENCE
   SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
   INITIATION SHOULD BE ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE TRANSPECOS REGION
   WHERE THE ETA AND GFS AGREE ON THE POSITION OF THE VORTICITY MAX BY
   THE 21Z TO 00Z TIMEFRAME. A CONDITIONAL POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION
   ALSO EXISTS NWD ACROSS THE LOW-ROLLING PLAINS AND ERN TX PANHANDLE
   BUT LIFT...SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE LESS NORTH OF THE TRACK
   OF THE VORTICITY MAX. IF ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPS LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON...IT SHOULD BE HIGH-BASED DUE TO LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT
   SPREADS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT
   IN A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED STRONG GUST WILL
   ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE INVERTED V PROFILES. THE CONVECTION
   SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK.
   
   ..BROYLES/BANACOS.. 03/24/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z