SPC AC 080101
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 PM CDT WED APR 07 2004
VALID 080100Z - 081200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW
LCH 30 WNW BPT LFK SHV 30 SE TXK 20 S PBF 30 SW TUP 25 WNW LGC 15
ESE AUO 35 W ABY 25 WNW AQQ.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE JAX 50 N PIE
...CONT... 20 WSW GLS 20 NNE PSX VCT 40 NW VCT 45 SSE AUS 15 S CLL
45 WSW LFK 30 N LFK 25 WNW SHV 10 ENE TXK 10 WSW LIT 20 NE MEM 35 NE
MSL 15 S CHA 25 SSE SAV.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE LAA 35 ESE TCC
30 NW ALM 30 S SAD 60 NW GBN 25 N EED 15 SSW MLF 40 NNE ENV 45 ESE
BOI 60 SW 27U 15 S DLN 55 E JAC 50 NE RKS 45 ENE DEN 40 W CNK 45 S
IRK 30 SSE SPI 25 ESE IND 55 W LUK 10 WNW SDF 45 SSW BLV 50 NNE JLN
40 NNW P28 10 SSE LAA.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW IWD 25 NW RHI
45 N GRB 20 SSW OSH 20 SE LSE 40 WNW EAU 45 S DLH 15 WSW IWD.
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO
PART OF THE SERN STATES...
...LOWER MS VALLEY AND SW PORTIONS OF THE SE U.S....
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE
SERN STATES OVERNIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SW ARKANSAS SWWD THROUGH SERN AND S TX. A
WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL MS AND SRN AL. THE
ATMOSPHERE ALONG AND S OF THESE BOUNDARIES REMAINS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE TO 1500 J/KG.
GIVEN FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING LOWER MS VALLEY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND WEAKLY CAPPED MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR...STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD FRONT FROM SRN AR THROUGH LA AND ERN
TX WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER SEVERAL HOURS. THOUGH LOW LEVEL
FLOW IS VEERED TO SWLY AND NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...A 50 KT MID
LEVEL JET ON SRN PERIPHERY OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
SUFFICIENT SHEAR THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER FOR ORGANIZED STORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND REMAIN
THE PRIMARY THREATS. AN OVERALL GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...RESULTING IN DECREASING
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING INHIBITION TO SURFACE BASED STORMS.
OTHER STORMS CONTINUE IN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION FROM THE CNTRL GULF
COASTAL AREA NWD THROUGH CNTRL AL. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH
PORTIONS OF WRN GA LATER TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES EWD
WITH TIME. THE WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN IN THIS
AREA AS HEIGHTS FALL IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE
RESULTING WARM ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED STORMS. SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS.
..DIAL.. 04/08/2004
...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z
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