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Apr- 9-2004 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
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   SPC AC 090602
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0102 AM CDT FRI APR 09 2004
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW
   AUS 35 SSE GGG 20 SSW ELD 20 WNW LIT 35 SSW HRO 30 NE MKO 40 S PNC
   20 NNE GAG 40 SW GAG 40 N CDS 40 SSW LTS 55 N ABI 35 NNE SJT 40 NNE
   JCT 60 NW AUS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE P07 50 NNE P07
   MAF 30 SW HOB 30 WNW CNM 20 ESE DMN 30 NNE DUG 50 WNW GBN 10 SSW TRM
   15 SSE EDW 30 NNW NID 45 S P38 25 SSE MLF 40 E DPG 30 E BYI 30 NW
   SUN 45 SSW S80 45 ESE 63S 80 ENE 63S 45 N FCA 50 SSE BIL 30 WSW DGW
   15 NNE CYS 30 S AKO 35 NNW GCK 25 SW HUT 15 E SGF 10 ESE PAH 35 SW
   CKV 25 NW MSL 25 SW CBM 45 NNE HEZ 25 WNW POE 40 WSW GLS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W MIA 10 NNW VRB.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF TX/OK INTO WRN
   AR...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NM WILL DE-AMPLIFY AND WEAKEN AS IT
   MOVES EWD THROUGH OK EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND INTO THE MS VALLEY THIS
   EVENING. A SECONDARY WEAKER SHORTWAVE NOW OVER CNTRL CA WILL WEAKEN
   AND SHEAR EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT OVER THE
   NRN PLAINS WILL DEVELOP SWD INTO OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE BY EVENING.
   
   
   WEAK SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE SERN STATES WWD
   THROUGH NRN TX...WHERE IT INTERSECTS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
   WITH ONGOING CONVECTION OVER W TX. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
   PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EWD ALONG AND N OF THIS FRONT INTO
   WRN/CNTRL OK AND EXTREME NRN TX AS LOW LEVEL JET VEERS AND
   ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION ZONE SHIFTS EWD.
   
   
   ...OK/TX AREAS...
   
   THE FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER MAY BE REINFORCED BY PRECIPITATION
   ASSOCIATED WITH MCS AS IT CONTINUES MAINLY THROUGH OK EARLY FRIDAY.
   THOUGH CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR MAY IMPEDE NWD PROGRESS OF THE
   BOUNDARY...IT SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT NWD INTO AT LEAST SRN OK DURING
   THE DAY AS WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION SHIFTS EWD. MODEST LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER MUCH OF TX WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY
   IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THIS MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWD THROUGH TX
   AND INTO PARTS OF SRN/CNTRL OK DURING THE DAY UNDERNEATH STEEPENING
   LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG POSSIBLE.
   
   THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE
   PERIOD...AND AS THIS OCCURS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER AND WEAKEN
   DURING THE DAY. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKENING/VEERING LOW LEVEL
   FLOW MAY POSE A LIMITING FACTOR...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO
   INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM WRN OK
   THROUGH THE ERN PART OF W TX. THOUGH ISOLATED STORMS MAY STILL BE
   POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE GIVEN WEAK CAP...THERE IS A HIGHER
   CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL REDEVELOP/INTENSIFY FARTHER NE IN WARM
   ADVECTION ZONE FROM N TX INTO SRN/CNTRL OK. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
   WILL INCREASE ACROSS OK DURING THE EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
   BUILDS SWD. THE SHARPENING BOUNDARY AND INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL JET
   OVERNIGHT WILL ENHANCE LIFT AND SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF
   STORMS...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO AN MCS FROM SERN OK INTO THE LOWER
   MS VALLEY AREA.
   
   THOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VEERED...SHEAR THROUGH A
   DEEPER LAYER WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED
   SUPERCELLS WITH ANY STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE OR IN WARM
   ADVECTION ZONE FARTHER E. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
   THREAT...THOUGH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...
   ESPECIALLY FROM SE OK/NE TX INTO WRN AR AS ACTIVITY EVOLVES INTO AN
   MCS. THOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...
   AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY WITH ANY STORM
   DEVELOPING ON OR INTERACTING WITH E-W BOUNDARY THAT MAY PERSIST
   ACROSS SRN OR CNTRL OK.
   
   ..DIAL/TAYLOR.. 04/09/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z
        
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