SPC AC 251620
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1120 AM CDT SUN APR 25 2004
   
   VALID 251630Z - 261200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE
   BUF 35 E BFD PSB AOO 45 WSW MRB 25 ENE LYH 35 SE PSK 35 W TRI 30 NW
   TYS 35 NW CSV 65 ENE BWG LEX 35 WSW MFD 15 NE TOL JXN 35 NNE GRR HTL
   OSC.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N
   EHA 10 SE GAG 25 ESE CSM FSI 20 W SPS 45 SSW CDS 30 S CAO 40 NNW CAO
   40 SE LHX 40 N EHA.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW P07 35 NE ROW
   60 SW ALS 20 WSW EGE 45 NNW 4FC 45 WNW AKO 45 NNW GLD 55 ESE GLD 50
   ENE OKC 10 N DUA 25 SE PBF 25 W HOP 20 W IND 40 SW SBN 25 E RFD 45 E
   MCW 25 NNW RWF 35 NNE JMS 45 N DVL ...CONT... 45 NNE ART 20 S GON
   ...CONT... 30 NE CRE 35 NNE FLO 20 NNW CAE 55 E MCN 10 S ABY 30 SE
   CEW.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWD INTO
   THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN CO ACROSS THE OK/TX
   PANHANDLES INTO WRN OK...
   
   ...GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
   STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS LIFTING
   NEWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW OVER
   CENTRAL WI IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD INTO NRN LOWER MI BY THIS
   EVENING CONTINUING TOWARD SWRN QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  A
   COLD FRONT ARCING SWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS INDIANA AND EXTREME WRN KY
   WILL PROGRESS EWD INTO NORTH CENTRAL OH AND CENTRAL KY LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON...WHILE WARM FRONT SHIFTS SLOWLY NEWD INTO WRN NY/WRN PA
   AND CENTRAL VA.
   
   PREFRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM OH INTO ERN
   KY...WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING NEW CONVECTION ALREADY
   DEVELOPING WITHIN SSW/NNE ORIENTED CLEAR ZONE FROM SWRN VA INTO WV. 
   MORNING HEATING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER
   70S WITHIN THIS REGION CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION WITH
   SBCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG.  STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING
   FROM SWRN VA ACROSS WV INTO WRN PA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  STRONG
   SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE
   LOWEST 6 KM /40-50 KT/ TO ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY
   PROVIDING THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. 
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
   WITH STRONGER CELLS.  SEE SWOMCD 476 FOR MORE DETAILS. 
   
   FARTHER EAST...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER FROM 
   PA SWD ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SERN VA.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT
   HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE NW/SE WARM FRONT ACROSS VA. 
   HOWEVER...CLEARING IS SPREADING NWD FROM NC TOWARD CENTRAL VA
   INDICATING GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR OVER THESE REGIONS. 
   OTHER THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING...WITH THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS /INCLUDING
   SUPERCELLS MAINLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT/ OVER PARTS OF WRN AND
   POSSIBLY CENTRAL VA. 
   
   ...SERN CO ACROSS OK/TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK...
   SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX MOVING SEWD ACROSS SOUTH
   CENTRAL CO...AND THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOWARD NERN NM
   AND NWRN TX BY EVENING.  COLD 500 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -20C COUPLED
   WITH STRONG DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OF
   7.5-8.5 C/KM.  ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SURFACE DEW
   POINTS IN THE 50S ARE EVIDENT ALONG THE RED RIVER AND EASTERLY
   COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE NWWD
   INTO THE PANHANDLE REGION.  DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   VORTICITY MAX...WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
   THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   THIS AFTERNOON FROM SERN CO INTO WRN OK.  PRONOUNCED DIRECTIONAL
   SHEAR WITH HEIGHT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THREAT FOR LARGE
   HAIL WITH STRONGER CELLS PRIMARILY  DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING.
   
   ..WEISS/JEWELL.. 04/25/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 2000Z