SPC AC 291647
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1147 AM CDT THU APR 29 2004
   
   VALID 291630Z - 301200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S
   JLN 10 SSW TUL OKC 45 SE SPS 55 WNW MWL 65 NNW ABI 30 WNW CDS 30 ENE
   AMA 55 SSW LBL 10 WNW LBL 10 SE RSL 20 NW FNB 25 ENE MKC 35 S JLN.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLH 30
   NNW MCB 25 WNW BTR 25 ESE POE 20 ENE SHV 30 E ELD GLH.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE P07 70 ENE P07
   20 WNW SJT 45 NE BGS 50 E LBB 30 NE PVW 30 W AMA 10 NE TCC 55 WSW
   TCC 4CR 35 NW TCS 50 NW SAD 25 NNW PHX 45 WSW PRC 45 SSW SGU 25 ESE
   ELY 35 W DPG 30 SSW EVW 20 E RKS 35 SE RWL 30 WSW CYS 30 ESE FCL 40
   WSW GLD 25 SE GLD 30 W LNK 20 SW LSE 30 SW ESC ...CONT... 10 NNW CLE
   10 E CMH 25 NNW JKL 40 NNE TYS 60 NW AND 50 ENE MCN 30 N AYS 10 ESE
   JAX.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN AND
   CNTRL PLAINS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PART OF THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY...
   
   ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...
   
   
   COLD FRONT HAS SURGED SWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE THEN EXTENDS NEWD
   THROUGH SWRN/CNTRL KS AND INTO EXTREME SE NEB. DRYLINE SHOULD SETUP
   FROM ERN PARTS OF W TX NWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE OR WRN OK WHERE
   IT WILL INTERSECT THE FRONT.
   
   
   LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
   60S IS RETURNING NWD THROUGH TX AND OK...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL
   CONTINUE TO ADVECT NWD THROUGH KS. DESTABILIZATION IN THE KS PORTION
   OF WARM SECTOR WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL THE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS CAN
   MIX OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CLEARING IS ALREADY
   OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF WRN OK...THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND SWRN
   KS...AND THIS AREA SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON
   WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL
   OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...MIXING AND
   CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY NEAR TRIPLE POINT WHERE THE DRYLINE
   INTERSECTS THE FRONT OVER THE EXTREME ERN TX PANHANDLE OR WRN OK
   SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
   SPREAD NEWD THROUGH WRN OK. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL
   WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
   
   
   FARTHER NWD INTO KS...CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED
   BY THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRESENCE OF THE CAP. IF LOW CLOUDS CAN
   MIX OUT...STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES SWD INTO KS. OTHERWISE...STORMS MAY DEVELOP
   LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT ACROSS KS IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM
   ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET. LARGE HAIL WILL
   BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT.
   
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY...
   
   
   STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON
   AHEAD OF VORT MAX MOVING ENEWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN
   THREATS. REFER TO MCD 493 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
   
   ..DIAL.. 04/29/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 2000Z