SPC AC 091618
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1118 AM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004
   
   VALID 091630Z - 101200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW
   IWD 15 WNW VOK 15 S ALO 30 WNW DSM 20 SSW SUX 15 NNE FSD 45 ENE ATY
   35 NNE BRD 35 SW IWD.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW
   BUF 25 ESE ELM 15 ENE JFK ...CONT... 15 NNW ORF 30 NE EKN 20 NNE HLG
   FDY 15 N FWA 45 N LAF 30 NNE PIA 30 S OTM 25 NNW STJ 20 ESE CNK 45
   SW RSL 30 ENE LBL 35 N EHA 30 N GLD 25 S 9V9 30 NW ABR 20 NNW JMS 20
   WNW RRT.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW BVE 30 SSE HEZ
   15 NNW GLH 20 NW MEM 40 S PAH 25 NNE LOZ 45 W HTS 20 NE LUK 20 WSW
   IND 20 ENE IRK 40 N GAG 65 SSW GAG 65 NNW ABI 25 ENE ABI 30 SSW FTW
   30 N FTW 20 SW BVO 35 SW JLN 30 NNE FYV 30 N SHV 30 NE GLS
   ...CONT... ILM 20 ENE FLO 15 WNW PFN.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N ONP 45 NNW RDM
   40 ESE RDM 50 SSW 4LW 20 SW MHS ACV.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW DMN 25 S SVC
   30 SE SAD 20 WNW SAD 30 WNW SOW 30 ENE 4SL 35 W CAO 35 SSW LAA 15 SE
   AKO 40 WSW SNY 10 NNE LAR 50 WSW RWL 15 SE RIW 15 E WRL 40 ESE 81V
   30 S PHP 10 SW PIR 20 E MBG BIS 40 WSW P24 70 NE LWT 25 NNE CTB.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW MSS BID.
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF MN WRN WI AND NRN
   IA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS
   EWD ACROSS SRN GREAT LAKES TO MID ATLANTIC COAST...
   
   ...UPPER MS VALLEY...
   VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS SCENTRAL CANADA WITH
   ASSOCIATED BAND OF STRONG MID/UPPER WINDS TRAVERSING NRN PLAINS AND
   UPPER MS VALLEY.  SURFACE LOW SRN MANITOBA MOVES EWD WITH A STRONG
   COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING NRN MT/NWRN ND SWEEPING SEWD  REACHING NRN
   MN SWWD INTO NRN WY TONIGHT.  AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WARM FRONT MOVING
   NWD THRU MN EWD INTO LOWER MI. AIR MASS IN THE WARM SECTOR IS MOIST
   AND EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF UPPER MS VALLEY TO S OF WARM FRONT.
   
   WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE AND THE STRONG HEATING IN WARM
   SECTOR...THE CAP EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY BY MID AFTERNOON
   FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF MDT
   RISK AREA. GREATEST INITIAL POTENTIAL SHOULD BE VICINITY WARM FRONT
   AND ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH NOW LOCATED FROM SERN ND SWWD
   INTO N CENTRAL NEB.
   
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT COUPLED WITH THE EXPECTED MLCAPES IN
   EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS WITH VERY
   LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.  ADDITIONALLY TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
   PARTICULARLY IN THE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR
   VICINITY WARM FRONT. STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO SEVERE MCS AND
   PROPAGATE E/SE THIS EVENING TOWARD WRN GREAT LAKES.
   
   ....SRN GREAT LAKES/NRN OH VALLEY...
   HAVE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK VICINITY AND S OF WARM FRONT NOW MOVING
   INTO SRN LWR MI. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK CAP ALONG WITH MLCAPES
   INCREASING TO 2000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON.  PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
   LARGE HAIL..HOWEVER VEERING SHEAR PROFILES NEAR WARM FRONT WILL
   PROVIDE PARAMETERS FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.
   
   ...PA/DELMARVA/NJ...
   REF MCD 613
   WARM FRONT RETURNING NWD IN THIS REGION AS WELL.  SHEAR PROFILES ARE
   WEAKER THAN FURTHER W...HOWEVER WITH LAPSE RATES OF 7C/KM AND
   MLCAPES UPWARDS TO 2000 J/KG...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ONCE CAP
   ERODES.  PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE MULTI-CELL WIND AND HAIL THREAT
   GIVEN THE WEAKER SHEAR IN THE REGION.
   
   ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CONTINUING INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
   MAKE FOR A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG AND JUST E OF SURFACE
   TROUGH/DRY LINE.  BY MID AFTERNOON THIS LINE SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM
   SWRN KS SSWWD INTO TX BIG BEND.  RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR PRECLUDES A
   SLIGHT RISK...HOWEVER PULSE SEVERE IS POSSIBLE MOST ANY WHERE ALONG
   AND E OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM MID AFTERNOON THRU EVENING
   HOURS.
   
   ...SERN U.S...
   REF MCD 612
   STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A CONTINUED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
   SUGGEST PULSE CONVECTION WILL BE COMMON VICINITY OF CENTRAL AND SRN
   APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON.  CAP IS ALREADY WEAK SO STORMS WILL
   DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRIMARY RISK OF HAIL IN STRONGER
   UPDRAFTS.
   
   ..HALES/BANACOS.. 05/09/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 2000Z