SPC AC 231634
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1134 AM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004
   
   VALID 231630Z - 241200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE
   DTW FWA DEC UIN 40 ENE OTM DBQ MSN 35 NNW MKG 65 N MTC.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DGW 25
   WSW GCC SHR 55 WNW SHR 50 E BIL MLS REJ PHP 10 S AIA DGW.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N
   PBG BTV RUT BAF BDR 10 SE TTN LBE UNI OWB PAH SGF SZL P35 ALO LSE
   AUW 10 NNE APN.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AVL
   LYH 35 SW RIC 10 NW RWI 45 SE CLT GSP AVL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE JAX 30 E GNV 20
   SSW GNV 40 SSE VLD 40 NW AYS 35 S AHN 30 ESE RMG 50 WSW CSV 25 SW
   BNA 15 ENE MKL 35 SW DYR 50 WSW JBR 55 NW LIT 40 E PGO 30 NE PRX 30
   SSE FTW 40 SSW BWD 10 SE SJT 25 W SJT 30 ENE BGS 20 E FSI 55 WSW TUL
   15 NE BVO 25 NNE CNU SPW MSP 30 WNW IWD 60 N ANJ ...CONT... 40 N BML
   20 SW BHB.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE 63S 50 NE GEG
   30 NE HLN 25 NE LWT OLF 40 WNW P24 40 E BIS 25 SE MHE 35 ESE AIA CYS
   45 NNW CAG 35 WNW PUC 25 W BAM 75 ESE 4LW 35 NNW LMT 20 W EUG 10 NE
   AST 25 ENE CLM 10 N BLI.
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY
   AND GREAT LAKES STATES...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO
   WESTERN NY/PA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF VA AND THE
   CAROLINAS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
   PLAINS...
   
   ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION.  THE
   EVOLUTION OF STORMS IS MUCH MORE COMPLICATED AND LESS CONFIDENT THAN
   THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  HOWEVER...POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR
   SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS.
   
   ...MI/IND/OH/PA...
   CURRENT CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER IND/IL IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
   BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS LOWER MI AND THE UPPER
   OH VALLEY.  AIRMASS AHEAD OF THESE STORMS IS QUITE MOIST/UNSTABLE
   WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES
   LIKELY 2500-3500 J/KG. SOUTHWESTERLY 500MB WINDS OF 30-40
   KNOTS...COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG UVVS ASSOCIATED
   WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WI/NORTHERN IL SHOULD AID IN
   THE MAINTENANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WELL INTO THE EVENING...WITH
   DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.  ISOLATED TORNADOES
   ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT FORM NEAR OR INTERACT WITH WARM FRONT
   DRAPED ACROSS LOWER MI.  IF ACTIVITY ORGANIZES SUFFICIENTLY...
   POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN INTENSE WIND EVENT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
   OH/LOWER MI.
   
   ...IA/IL...
   CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN LOW OVER CENTRAL IA...WITH COLD
   FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN MO INTO OK.  A REMNANT
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS CENTRAL MO.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
   SHOWS THAT STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR NORTH OF OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL.  THIS IS
   ALSO WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOST LIKELY TO RECOVER BEHIND EARLY
   MORNING CONVECTION.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A VERY UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG. 
   COMBINATION OF A RATHER WEAK CAP AND UVVS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST
   MOVING SHORTWAVE NOW OVER KS SHOULD INITIATE STORMS BY MID
   AFTERNOON.  STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE VERY
   FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH 0-1KM SHEAR OF 20-30 KNOTS
   INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.  IF SURFACE WINDS CAN REMAIN
   SLIGHTLY BACKED IN THIS AREA NORTH OF OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...IT
   APPEARS THERE IS A RISK OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES.  VERY LARGE HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
   MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF IND BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE
   EVENING.
   
   ...VA/CAROLINAS...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO FORM OVER THE
   MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NC AND SOUTHWEST VA.  AIRMASS AHEAD OF THESE
   STORMS OVER SOUTHERN VA AND CENTRAL NC IS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
   WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F AND AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES LIKELY TO EXCEED
   4000 J/KG.  WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE WEAK...SUGGESTING WEAKLY ORGANIZED
   MULTICELL STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF DAMAGING
   WINDS AND HAIL.  SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW FARTHER
   NORTH ACROSS VA/MD MAY RESULT IN STRONGER DOWNSLOPE
   EFFECTS...POSSIBLY LESSENING THE CONVECTIVE THREAT DESPITE HIGH
   INSTABILITY.
   
   ...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
   NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS
   AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHEAST MT TO THE BLACK HILLS.  SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION AS STRONG
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ID/NV ROTATES EASTWARD.  COLD TEMPERATURES
   ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS.
   
   ...SWRN MO INTO NORTH TX...
   SURFACE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST MO
   INTO NORTH TX BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS AREA IS LIKELY
   CAPPED...HOWEVER 12Z/15Z RUC SOLUTIONS BREAK OUT STORMS IN THIS
   REGION.  WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN THE EVENT THAT
   CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE CAN BE REACHED AND AN ISOLATED CELL CAN BREAK
   CAP.
   
   ..HART/JEWELL.. 05/23/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 2000Z