May-23-2004 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Created: Sun May 23 20:14:06 UTC 2004
Categorical Graphic
20040523 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probablistic Tornado Graphic
20040523 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probablistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20040523 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probablistic Large Hail Graphic
20040523 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 231959
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0259 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004
   
   VALID 232000Z - 241200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE
   DTW 10 SSE FWA 40 WSW SPI 20 W UIN 30 NNW BRL 30 NNE CID MSN 45 SSW
   MBL 65 N MTC.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE
   DGW 30 N WRL 45 ENE COD 55 WNW SHR 50 ENE BIL MLS 60 WSW DIK PHP 35
   ENE CDR 50 NNE DGW.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N
   PBG BTV RUT BAF BDR 10 SE TTN LBE UNI OWB 15 WSW PAH 15 WNW POF 20 S
   JLN 20 NNW JLN 30 NE SZL 35 ESE OTM 40 E MCW 40 W AUW 40 SSE IMT 10
   NNE APN.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW
   AND ROA 35 SW RIC 20 NW OAJ 45 NNW CHS 30 NNW AGS 35 NNW AND.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE JAX 30 E GNV 20
   SSW GNV 40 SSE VLD 40 NW AYS 35 S AHN 30 ESE RMG 50 WSW CSV 25 SW
   BNA 15 ENE MKL 35 SW DYR 50 WSW JBR 55 NW LIT 40 E PGO 30 NE PRX 30
   SSE FTW 40 SSW BWD 10 SE SJT 25 W SJT 30 ENE BGS FSI 55 WSW TUL 15
   NE BVO 25 NNE CNU SPW MSP 30 WNW IWD 60 N ANJ ...CONT... 40 N BML 20
   SW BHB.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE 63S 50 NE GEG
   30 NE HLN 25 NE LWT OLF 40 WNW P24 40 E BIS 25 SE MHE 35 ESE AIA CYS
   45 NNW CAG 35 WNW PUC 25 W BAM 75 ESE 4LW 35 NNW LMT 20 W EUG 10 NE
   AST 25 ENE CLM 10 N BLI.
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
   ACROSS ECNTRL IA...EXTREME SERN WI...NRN/CNTRL IL...NRN
   IND...EXTREME NWRN OH AND CNTRL/SRN LOWER MI...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OZARKS THROUGH THE
   UPPER MS VLY AND EWD INTO THE UPPER OH VLY TO NY AND PA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN
   STATES...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH
   PLAINS...
   
   ...MID/UPPER MS VLY INTO CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...
   STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SHIFTING EWD ACROSS IA AND MN
   AND WILL TRANSLATE RAPIDLY ACROSS WI AND NRN/CNTRL IL LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON.  DRY SLOT WRAPPING NEWD AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS ALLOWED
   SUFFICIENT HEATING TO DESTABILIZE AREAS FROM ERN IA AND NWRN IL
   WHERE MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG EXIST. TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG
   SURFACE TROUGH BY 21Z ACROSS ERN IA...THEN MOVE ENEWD ACROSS
   CNTRL/SRN WI AND NRN/CNTRL IL BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. 
   SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE...SOME WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS. RISK OF A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO ALSO EXISTS PARTICULARLY
   ACROSS NRN/CNTRL IL WHERE THE 0-1KM SHEAR SAMPLED BY VWPS EXHIBIT
   LOOPED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITHIN LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT.
   
   ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP EWD INTO PARTS OF LOWER MI ALONG WARM
   FRONT...PERHAPS VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS AIR MASS TRIES TO
   RECOVER FROM MORNING TSTMS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
   TORNADOES ARE LIKELY. 18Z DTX SOUNDINGS SHOWED VERY UNSTABLE AIR
   MASS AND 225 M2/S2 STORM RELATIVE HELICITY.  LATER THIS
   EVENING...ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS UPSTREAM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
   WITH DAMAGING WINDS...SOME WHICH MAY BE GREATER THAN 65 KTS.
   
   OTHERWISE...SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD THROUGH CNTRL MO HAS BEEN
   EFFECTIVE IN FORCING TSTMS.  CINH IS MUCH STRONGER FARTHER SW  AND
   TSTMS WILL BE FIGHTING A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.  HOWEVER... A
   STRONGER STORM OR TWO IS STILL POSSIBLE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE
   THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS. THOUGH THE 0-1KM SHEAR IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS FARTHER
   NORTHEAST...A RISK OF AN ISOLD TORNADO IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
   CNTRL/ECNTRL MO.  IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR ON HOW FAR EAST THE
   SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST...GIVEN LEFT-OVER INFLUENCES OF RECENT MCS
   THAT MOVED ACROSS SRN IL.
   
   ...MIDWEST TO UPPER OH VLY...
   LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS HAS BEEN MOVING RAPIDLY ENEWD THROUGH IND THIS
   AFTERNOON.  DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1500
   J/KG.  18Z KILN SOUNDING SHOWED A WARM LAYER BETWEEN 700-500 MB AND
   THIS MAY BE INHIBITING STRONG UPSCALE GROWTH.  BUT...GIVEN THAT THE
   MCS IS MOVING TOWARD SRN PERIPHERY OF 40 KT WLY FLOW...ACTIVITY MAY
   SURVIVE DOWNSTREAM INTO OH AND PERHAPS NWRN PA LATER THIS EVENING. 
   MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NY/NRN PA...
   TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG THE ERN SHORES OF LAKE ERIE AND
   ALONG OLD BOUNDARY OVER NERN PA.  STRONGEST INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO
   FEED NEWD FROM PA INTO BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED E-W ACROSS CNTRL NY.
    AS DURING THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...TSTMS ARE APT TO CONTINUE
   DEVELOPING WITH ISOLD SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO COULD ALSO
   OCCUR...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL/SRN NY.
   
   ...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   TSTMS ARE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.  STEEP LAPSE
   RATES AND MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO
   ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT TSTMS.  A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN LARGE
   HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND THE RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO.
   
   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   CINH REMAINS QUITE STRONG ALONG DRYLINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION
   ACROSS SCNTRL-ERN OK.  GIVEN LACK OF STRONG CONVERGENCE...IT IS NOT
   LIKELY THAT THE CAP WILL BE OVERCOME THIS AFTERNOON.  BUT...IF AN
   ISOLD TSTM COULD MANAGE TO INITIATE...IT COULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE
   WITH LARGE HAIL.
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   NUMEROUS TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG
   SEABREEZE/BOUNDARIES.  AIR MASS IS HOT AND MOIST...BUT THE FLOW IS
   RATHER WEAK.  THUS...MULTICELL PULSE SEVERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
   PREDOMINATE MODE AND AS THE CELLS BEGIN TO COLLAPSE...DAMAGING
   WINDS/HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ..RACY.. 05/23/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z