SPC AC 301638
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1138 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004
   
   VALID 301630Z - 311200Z
   
   THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE
   HOP 60 E MKL 35 NNW TUP 40 N GWO 35 ENE ELD TXK 40 SW PGO 30 WNW FYV
   45 NNE JLN 30 ENE IRK 40 WNW MMO 35 E MMO 30 N DNV 35 NE EVV 10 ENE
   HOP.
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE
   MSL 35 E GWO 45 SSW ELD TYR 35 WSW PRX 25 NNE MKO 40 N JLN 35 SSW
   P35 25 SE CID 45 W LNR 25 ESE VOK 40 ESE MKE 35 W FWA 20 NE SDF 20
   ESE BWG 25 NE MSL.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW
   MGM 30 SW LUL 25 SSE ESF 35 WSW POE 45 E CLL 25 WSW CLL 10 W AUS 45
   WNW AUS 55 SE BWD 25 ESE SEP 10 SW DAL MLC 25 SSE OJC 30 WSW DSM 15
   S MKT 30 SW STC 35 ENE BRD 25 SSW IWD 35 ESE MTW 40 SE DTW 20 SSE
   CAK 30 ENE PKB 25 SSE 5I3 25 SE RMG 20 WNW LGC 25 NNW MGM.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE DRT 45 SSW BWD
   35 SSW ADM 35 SSW TUL 30 ESE EMP 25 E MHK 45 S EAR 20 WSW LBF 35 W
   VTN 35 NE PIR 35 W FAR 50 W RRT ...CONT... 35 NW CTB 20 NE HLN 10
   NNW 27U 55 S S80 45 SE ALW 40 NE EPH 55 NNW EAT 75 ENE BLI
   ...CONT... 15 WNW BUF 25 SSE NEL ...CONT... SSI 25 ESE GNV 10 N SRQ.
   
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME ERN OK INTO MUCH
   OF AR...MUCH OF SRN AND ERN MO...CENTRAL AND SRN IL...SWRN IN...WRN
   KY AND WRN TN....
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN IA...SRN WI AND NRN
   IL...WRN AND CENTRAL IN...INTO CENTRAL KY...MID TN..NRN MS INTO NERN
   TX AND ERN OK....
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
   UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO OH AND THE ERN OH AND TN VALLEY INTO PARTS OF
   CENTRAL TX....
   
   ...MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PART OF THE
   MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE OZARKS AND TN
   VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE SCALE TROUGH NOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E
   INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH SOME
   AMPLIFICATION LIKELY AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER SERN CO/NERN
   NM ASSUMES A NEGATIVE TILT.  BAND OF 50-60 KT MID LEVEL WSWLY FLOW
   ON SRN FRINGE OF TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS MO/NRN AR THIS
   AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE TN AND LOWER OH VALLEY TONIGHT.  AT
   HIGHER LEVELS...PATTERN EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT.
   
   ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER WRN MN SHOULD LIFT NWD AND WEAKEN DURING
   THE PERIOD.  A NEW SURFACE WAVE SHOULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY/TONIGHT
   OVER NRN/ERN MO OR CENTRAL IL...IN RESPONSE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL
   FORCING WITH CO/NM IMPULSE.  BUT FEATURE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN FAIRLY
   WEAK AS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT MCS...AND THAT FROM
   ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TODAY...CONTINUES TO MODIFY LOW
   LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS.
   
   ...AR...MO..IL INTO IN..KY AND TN...
   
   COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM LOW OVER NERN SD SWD THROUGH NWRN
   MO...THEN SWWD INTO WEST CENTRAL TX.  ALSO...WARM FRONT REACHES FROM
   NERN IL SEWD INTO SERN KY...WITH A CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY FROM THE MKC
   AREA THROUGH W CENTRAL IL TO JUST S OF THE CHI AREA.  AIR MASS IS
   QUITE UNSTABLE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
    SFC BASED CAPE ALREADY BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG...AND LIFTED INDICES
   OF -6 TO -9.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RUNNING AROUND 40 KT IN THE
   VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND
   8C/KM.
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE
   COLD FRONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF MO EXTENDING SWD/SWWD
   INTO AR TOWARDS MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  CURRENT ACTIVITY ACROSS
   NERN/CENTRAL IL WILL MOVE EWD...WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG
   THE BOUNDARY INTO NERN AND CENTRAL MO. ALSO...DEVELOPMENT WAS
   OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF CONFLUENCE OF THE OH/MS RIVER WHICH MAY
   ENHANCE A BOUNDARY LATER TODAY ACROSS SERN MO/NERN AR INTO WRN KY
   AND WRN TN.
   
   ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.  TORNADOES AND
   LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS ACROSS THE HIGH/MODERATE HIGH
   RISK AREA.  GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...UVVS WILL BE AIDED BY
   STRONG AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
   INTO ERN AR/SERN MO INT WRN KY...WRN AND POSSIBLY MID TN TONIGHT.
   
   ..CORFIDI/MCCARTHY/JEWELL.. 05/30/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 2000Z