SPC AC 270050
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004
VALID 270100Z - 271200Z
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW TUS 60 WSW SOW
25 NNE PGA 50 WNW MLF 65 NE TPH 45 SSW BIH 60 ENE MER 20 N RNO 85 E
4LW 10 SW BKE 25 SSW LWS 35 W GEG 20 NNW EAT 50 ENE BLI ...CONT...
60 NNW DVL 30 SE DVL 15 WNW FAR 45 SE FAR 45 S AXN 35 WSW RWF 25 ENE
MHE 40 SSE 9V9 25 N BUB 15 SSE BUB 20 NE GRI 25 N LNK 50 NW LWD 25
WSW P35 30 SSW TOP 40 ESE ICT 20 WNW BVO 30 S JLN 15 W LIT 40 ENE
HSV 35 SSE AHN 30 SSW CRE.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW LRD 45 E JCT
15 NE ABI 55 NE BGS 15 E MAF 30 ESE FST 30 SSW P07.
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
CONFLUENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME BETWEEN LEE-SIDE TROUGH AND
SURFACE HIGH OVER MO RIVER VALLEY HAS AIDED MOISTURE FLUX AND TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS LATE TODAY. MODEST LOW LEVEL SELY
FLOW COUPLED WITH 20-25KT NWLY FLOW ALOFT WAS CONTRIBUTING TO
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR PERSISTENT MULTICELLS
AND A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS. MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
OUTFLOW DOMINANT AND COLLIDING OUTFLOWS WERE RESULTING IN RENEWED
UPDRAFT INTENSIFICATION WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED
AIRMASS. ASIDE FROM RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DIURNAL FORCING
FOR TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT FOR
ASCENT APPEARS LIMITED TO A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPREADING SEWD
ACROSS WRN NEB/NWRN KS. POCKETS OF UNTAPPED INSTABILITY REMAIN FROM
SERN CO SWD ACROSS THE TX/OK PNHDLS AND WRN OK THIS EVENING. STORMS
IN CLUSTERS MAY OCCASIONALLY FLARE UP AND PRODUCE A DAMAGING WIND
GUST OR SOME HAIL INTO THE NIGHT AS THIS GREATER INSTABILITY IS
TAPPED. HOWEVER...LIMITED SHEAR AND FORCING...ESPECIALLY WITH SWD
EXTENT...WILL TEND TO KEEP THE OVERALL PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WIND
AND/OR HAIL RELATIVELY LOW. STRONG STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
WITH TIME.
...NRN GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES...
STRONG FRONTAL SURGE INTO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES WAS
UNDERWAY FROM SERN ALBERTA INTO NRN/WRN MT THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE
POCKETS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY HAVE AGAIN DEVELOPED BENEATH MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM ID SWD ACROSS PARTS OF NV AND UT. MARGINAL
DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BUT OROGRAPHIC
AND DIURNAL FORCING COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF A COUPLE OF HAIL
AND/OR WIND EVENTS THROUGH THE EVENING.
...SOUTHEAST/FL...
EARLIER LINEAR MCS HAS MOVED EAST OF SERN GA BUT TRAILING PORTION OF
THE OUTFLOW WAS MERGING WITH MULTICELL SEABREEZE COMPLEX OVER NRN
FL. ANOTHER BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WAS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE WRN
FL PNHDL AND SERN AL. VERY MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO FUEL OCCASIONALLY INTENSE STORMS FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS
BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING PROMOTES AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND.
..CARBIN.. 06/27/2004
...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z
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