SPC AC 011958
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0258 PM CDT THU JUL 01 2004
   
   VALID 012000Z - 021200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW
   3B1 25 NNE PWM 25 N PVD 15 N EWR 10 SSW ILG 25 WSW SBY 30 NW ORF 50
   SSE CHO 30 SW SHD 25 NW SHD 10 ENE AOO 35 N PSB 40 ENE JHW 30 NW
   ROC.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW
   CDS 30 SE LBL 30 S P28 30 NE OKC 30 S MKO 30 S PGO 30 SE PRX 40 S
   SPS 25 SSE CDS 40 NW CDS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW MRF 35 NW BGS
   40 WNW PVW 25 W CAO ALS 30 N DRO 40 N 4BL 40 S SLC 25 SSE EKO 10 NE
   U31 10 SW BIH 10 W FAT 20 W SAC 40 W RBL 50 ESE CEC 30 WSW RDM 55 SW
   GEG 35 N 4OM ...CONT... 10 N RRT 15 ESE BJI 50 S DLH 35 WNW GRB 25 W
   HTL 50 E OSC.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND SWD
   INTO VA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN OK / N TX...
   
   ...NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
   AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER
   CAPE/ FROM NY / VT / NH SWD INTO VA AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
    ALTHOUGH ONLY MODERATE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD -- AND SOMEWHAT
   LIMITED SHEAR -- EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
   AHEAD OF PRONOUNCED SERN CANADA UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING CONTINUED
   STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION.  STORMS REMAIN ISOLATED /
   CELLULAR ATTM...WITH LOCAL / ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS /
   HAIL PERSISTING.  
   
   GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS NRN NY INTO VT /
   NH...WHERE STRONGER WIND FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD NRN
   EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AXIS.  WITH TIME...SOME LINEAR ORGANIZATION OF
   CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED  -- PARTICULARLY AS COLD FRONT MOVES
   ACROSS LK ONTARIO / THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER INTO THIS REGION. 
   ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WOULD LIKELY
   AFFECT THIS REGION THROUGH THE EVENING.
   
   ...RED RIVER VALLEY REGION OF THE SRN PLAINS...
   LARGE MCS HAS GENERALLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF OK...WHILE
   MCV REMAINS IN ITS WAKE ALONG WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG AND JUST S
   OF THE RED RIVER.  AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ALONG AND
   SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND EXPECT STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING PERHAPS ALONG BUT PARTICULARLY N OF
   BOUNDARY AS LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS.
   
   WITH AROUND 40 KT NWLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS ABOVE INCREASING SLY /
   SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET...SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED / PERHAPS
   ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WINDS. 
   
   THE POTENTIAL -- HOWEVER UNCERTAIN -- FOR A SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD
   WIND THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP AN ORGANIZED COLD
   POOL.  NWLY FLOW ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT SEWD MOVEMENT OF STORMS / COLD
   POOL...AND WITH SLY LOW-LEVEL JET FAVORING DEVELOPMENT ALONG SRN /
   LEADING EDGE OF POTENTIAL COLD POOL / OUTFLOW -- STORMS COULD MOVE
   SEWD AT SPEEDS FASTER THAN THE MEAN WIND WOULD SUGGEST.  SHOULD THIS
   OCCUR...A SOMEWHAT GREATER / MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS COULD EXIST AHEAD OF BOWING LINE OF STORMS...BUT WILL MAINTAIN
   ONLY 15% SEVERE PROBABILITY GIVEN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS
   EVOLUTION.
   
   ...NRN GREAT BASIN AND VICINITY...
   COMPLEX SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WITHIN WEAK / LARGER-SCALE
   MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WHERE 500 TO 1000
   J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE HAS DEVELOPED.  ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD
   WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK...RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
   AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THIS REGION SUGGESTS ISOLATED HAIL /
   DAMAGING WINDS WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS THROUGH
   MID-EVENING.
   
   ..GOSS.. 07/01/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z