SPC AC 141254
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0754 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2004
   
   VALID 141300Z - 151200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E
   JAX 25 W CTY ...CONT... 30 WNW BVE 30 SE JAN 20 SSW JLN 30 SSW LBF
   40 WSW CDR 30 NE MLS 10 N GDV 30 NW Y22 65 W YKN 40 E VIH 50 ESE BWG
   20 ENE HTS 25 SE LBE 20 ENE DUJ 15 NE IPT 35 NE ORF.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW SAN 15 ENE DAG
   20 ENE P38 55 SSW TWF 50 ENE BOI 45 S MSO 45 NNW 3TH 35 SSW 63S 35
   SSW RDM 25 ENE MFR 25 NW MFR 15 SW OLM 20 WNW BLI ...CONT... 40 ENE
   PSX 50 N HOU 35 ENE LFK 15 SSE SHV 25 SE TXK 45 N TXK 15 WSW FSM 10
   ENE BVO 10 WSW HUT 25 SSW GCK 30 E ROW 55 N MRF 40 SW P07.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW IWD 20 NW MKT
   25 N FOD 40 SW OTM 35 E MDH 50 S SDF 30 ESE DAY 30 WNW TOL 20 SW HTL
   15 W ANJ.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID
   ATLANTIC...SERN STATES...DEEP SOUTH...TN VLY NWWD INTO THE NRN HIGH
   PLAINS...
   
   ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO NY...
   LEADING EDGE OF TUESDAYS GREAT LAKES MCS WAS MOVING EWD THROUGH WRN
   NY AND CNTRL PA AT MID-MORNING.  MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE TSTMS
   WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE REGIME ACROSS ERN PA AND ERN NY
   THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  DESPITE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH MIGRATING INTO THE REGION...IT
   APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY/HEATING WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF
   THE MASON-DIXON LINE TODAY.  IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
   ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSTMS GIVEN
   FAST WLY FLOW REGIME /30 KTS/...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT
   ANTICIPATED.
   
   ...DELMARVA SWD INTO THE SERN STATES...
   A GREATER SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE SWD
   INTO THE SERN STATES TODAY.  SLIGHTLY STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 1500-2000
   J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
   DIFFLUENT...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO 1/DEVELOP PREFERENTIALLY ALONG THE
   MOUNTAINS AND 2/ INTENSIFY ALONG LEADING EDGE OF CURRENT MCS MOVING
   SEWD TOWARD NRN GA/WRN SC.  GIVEN WNWLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40+ KTS 
   TSTM CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO FORWARD PROPAGATING
   SYSTEMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST.
   
   ...DEEP SOUTH/TN VLY NWWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...
   LOCAL CONVERGENCE AND STRONG HEATING ARE LIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DEEP
   SOUTH/TN VLY THIS AFTERNOON.  MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND
   INCREASING UNIDIRECTIONAL NWLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE BOW ECHOES
   WITH ATTENDANT HIGH WINDS/HAIL.
   
   UPSTREAM...CONDITIONAL THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL
   EXIST THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE
   OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER IMPULSE NOW CROSSING NEB HAS BEEN
   SUPPORTING ELEVATED NOCTURNAL TSTMS OVER THE MO VLY.  AS THIS
   IMPULSE MOVES SEWD...SURFACE BASED TSTMS MAY INITIATE IF LOCAL
   CONVERGENCE CAN BREACH THE CAP NOTED IN 12Z SOUNDINGS. IT IS
   POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER CLUSTER OF TSTMS MAY FORWARD PROPAGATE SEWD
   THROUGH THE OZARKS AND INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER MS/TN VLYS LATER
   TODAY WITH HIGH WINDS/HAIL.
   
   ...CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   ISOLD TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TODAY/TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN HIGH
   PLAINS FROM SERN MT INTO THE BLACK HILLS REGION.  PERSISTENT SELY
   UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN 50S DEW POINTS AND GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATE
   ENVIRONMENT AND LOCATION ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MODEST NW FLOW
   ALOFT...ANY TSTM THAT CAN DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
   WINDS. MAIN LIMITATION WILL BE THE ABSENCE OF UPPER SUPPORT TOPPING
   THE WRN STATES RIDGE.
   
   ...SWRN DESERTS...
   COMPLICATED SCENARIO EXISTS ACROSS THE SWRN DESERTS TODAY.  WEAK MCV
   HAS EVOLVED FROM OVERNIGHT MCS AND WAS LOCATED OVER WRN MARICOPA
   COUNTY AT 12Z. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD INTO SRN CA
   TODAY. CLOUD CANOPY WILL GRADUALLY THIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF ERN
   AZ THIS MORNING.  TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS
   AIR MASS DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF THE MAIN INVERTED TROUGH MIGRATING
   INTO SONORA/SRN AZ LATER TODAY.  THOUGH IT APPEARS THE MAIN THREAT
   WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN INFLUX OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM
   THE GULF OF CA AND WEAK MIDLEVEL WIND FLOW.  POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
   FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE VLYS BY LATE
   AFTERNOON.  THOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW UNSTABLE THE LOWER DESERTS
   WILL BECOME OWING TO THE CLOUDS THINNING LATER IN THE
   DAY...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND APPROACH OF THE MCV MAY AUGMENT TSTMS
   ACROSS SERN CA INTO SRN NV.  THESE TSTMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE ISOLD
   DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..RACY/GUYER.. 07/14/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z