SPC AC 302000
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0300 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2004
   
   VALID 302000Z - 311200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW
   ERI FKL HLG 20 WSW HTS 45 N CSV 55 N MSL 15 SE MKL DYR 25 W PAH 40 S
   BMG 35 SSE MIE 30 SSE DTW.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW
   FOD 25 SE SPW 25 SE BRD 20 SW DLH 65 WSW IWD 20 NNE EAU 20 ENE ALO
   30 NE DSM 40 SSW FOD.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW CNU 30 SW END
   70 SSE CDS 25 NNW ABI 25 ENE ABI 20 NNW MWL 30 WSW FYV 35 ENE VIH 50
   S UIN 30 SW UIN 40 SSW IRK 25 NW CNU.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW CAR 10 SSW BML
   20 ENE EEN 15 S GON ...CONT... 60 NE MOT 35 E PHP 15 NE VTN 50 S 9V9
   30 SSW MHE 25 WSW ATY 55 E FAR INL ...CONT... 45 WSW FHU 45 N INW 20
   NW U17 30 SSW U24 20 E LOL 15 N RBL 30 SE CEC 45 SE OTH 35 WSW RDM
   15 N BNO 45 N OWY 30 NNE OGD 55 S BPI RIW 20 NE COD 15 SSW GTF 70 NW
   FCA.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE DHT 50 NNW CAO
   20 E COS 30 NE FCL 35 SSW BFF 25 N SNY 20 NNW IML 45 ESE GLD 15 WSW
   GCK 15 W LBL 40 NNE DHT.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH
   VALLEY...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH
   PLAINS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN MS
   VALLEY...
   
   ...OH VALLEY...
   AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
   THE MS VALLEY WILL PROGRESS EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AHEAD
   OF THE TROUGH...STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
   WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
   LOCATED ALONG THE OH RIVER. SEVERAL STORM CLUSTERS ARE ONGOING ALONG
   THE BOUNDARY EAST AND NORTHEAST OF A SFC LOW IN SERN MO. SOUTH OF
   THE BOUNDARY...MLCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG.
   THE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND AREAS
   ACROSS IND AND OH WILL BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
   NWD.
   
   AT MID-LEVELS...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A JET MAXIMA LOCATED ACROSS
   SW IND WITH ABOUT 45 KT AT 500 MB. THE IND VAD WIND PROFILE CONFIRMS
   THIS...SHOWING 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS APPEARS TO BE
   REPRESENTATIVE MAINLY ALONG AND NW OF THE BOUNDARY. THE STRENGTH OF
   THE SHEAR SUGGESTS A FEW MINI-SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN
   KY..SE IND AND SWRN OH ESPECIALLY IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN CONTINUE TO
   DESTABILIZE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL
   ACCOMPANY STORMS THAT ROTATE. HOWEVER...MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
   THREAT SHOULD BE FROM MULTICELL CONVECTION. HIGH SFC
   DEWPOINTS...UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR WILL MAKE WIND DAMAGE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. THE
   CELLS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS FAR SRN IND AND ACROSS OH THIS
   AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING SLOWLY THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES
   ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   ...NRN MS VALLEY...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS ND AND MN IS
   RESULTING IN A BAND OF STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS CNTRL MN WHERE
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ENHANCED. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 30 TO 40 KT
   OF 0-6 KM SHEAR ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL MN WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CONSIDERING MLCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE
   FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THIS SUGGESTS STORMS WILL REMAIN
   MULTICELLULAR AS THEY SPREAD EWD ACROSS SERN MN AND ERN IA.
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SUGGEST ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. IN ADDITION...HAIL WILL ALSO BE A
   THREAT ESPECIALLY ACROSS IA WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY
   STRONGER.
   
   ...HIGH PLAINS...
   CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AND MOVING SEWD INTO THE PLAINS
   OF ERN CO. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED
   ACROSS WRN KS WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. THE STORMS
   SHOULD BE SUSTAINED AS THEY MOVE SEWD INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY
   THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS BEING ENHANCED BY A
   MID-LEVEL JET MAX CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS
   SUGGESTS SEVERE MULTICELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
   FOR ISOLATED HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE STORMS
   SHOULD DIMINISH AS INSTABILITY DECREASES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
   REGION.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/30/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z