SPC AC 261610
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1110 AM CDT THU AUG 26 2004
   
   VALID 261630Z - 271200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W
   OTM 40 ESE OMA 25 NNE OMA 50 E SUX 30 ESE SPW MCW 50 SSW LSE 20 WSW
   DBQ 30 SSE CID 25 W OTM.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OSC
   FNT JXN 45 NW MIE HUF 30 NNE SLO ALN COU OJC TOP BIE LNK 35 ESE OFK
   10 E OTG 10 ENE RWF 10 SSW STC BRD 25 ESE BJI 30 WNW INL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S VCT 30 NW VCT 30
   SSE TPL 40 SE DAL 10 W PRX 15 NW MKO 30 WSW EMP 10 SSE HSI 20 NE MCK
   20 NNE LIC 35 SW DEN 35 WNW PUC 15 SSE ENV 35 S OWY 45 N BNO 20 WNW
   DLS 50 N PDX 30 SE SEA 40 NNE SEA 25 NE BLI ...CONT... 10 NNW ART 40
   WNW IPT 25 WNW SHD 35 NE HKY 15 W AND 25 WNW AGS 30 WSW SOP FAY 20 N
   HSE.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW MRF 50 N MRF
   35 ENE FST 55 W ABI 40 WNW SPS 35 ESE SPS 30 W SEP 45 E SJT 25 SSE
   P07.
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LARGE PORTION OF IOWA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
   WRN GREAT LAKES...
   
   ...NORTH CENTRAL U.S...
   THE UNSEASONABLY VIGOROUS MID/UPPER TROUGH AND ITS BAND OF STRONG
   WINDS CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
   PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY.  LEAD S/WV TROUGH/ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
   THIS MORNING MOVES RAPIDLY ENEWD FROM NRN MN ACROSS ONTARIO TODAY. 
   COLD FRONT TRAILS SWWD ACROSS MN INTO NEB AND WEAKLY WWD SRN WY INTO
   NRN UT.
   
   NEXT S/WV TROUGH AND STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX MOVES RAPIDLY
   EWD ACROSS NEB/SD TODAY AND TO UPPER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z FRI.
   
   LEE/HEAT SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL KS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP A VERY
   MOIST AND POTENTIALLY EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEWD ACROSS ERN
   PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY INTO WRN GREAT LAKES.
   
   STRONG CAP WILL DELAY SURFACE STORM INITIATION UNTIL MID/LATE
   AFTERNOON ALLOWING AIR MASS TO BECOME VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE S
   OF FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY SEWD.  BY MID AFTERNOON
   FRONT EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED FROM ERN MN SWWD ACROSS NWRN IA INTO
   SRN NEB.
   
   MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AS TO WHEN CAP WILL WEAKEN
   SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  WILL
   CONTINUE SCENARIO OF INITIATION VICINITY FRONT SRN MN/WRN IA BY
   MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHERE THE COMBINATION OF 50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR AND MLCAPES TO NEAR 4000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.  ALONG
   WITH THE LARGE HAIL AND WIND POTENTIAL...TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
   UNTIL LATE EVENING.  18Z SPECIAL SOUNDINGS COULD AID IN EVALUATING
   THE WEAKENING OF THE CAP AND TIMING OF STORM INITIATION.
   
   FURTHER E A DEEPER AND AS UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE SPREADING NEWD
   ACROSS NRN IL INTO SRN WI. SEVERE THREAT THIS AREA COULD COMMENCE
   DURING AFTERNOON DEPENDENT ON CAP STRENGTH OR BE DELAYED UNTIL THE
   EXPECTED SEVERE STORMS IN IA MOVE EWD DURING EVENING.  TORNADO
   THREAT WOULD BE GREATER IF STORMS COULD DEVELOP DURING DAYLIGHT
   HOURS...WHILE BY THIS EVENING...A SEVERE MCS TRACKING EWD FROM IA
   WOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
   
   FURTHER N AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS ERN MN INTO WRN GREAT
   LAKES...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 2000 J/KG. WHILE
   40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS...THE
   SEVERE PARAMETERS WOULD FAVOR PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS.
   
   ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   UPSLOPE DEVELOPS NERN CO THIS PM...HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE
   PRECLUDES A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  THE STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND
   VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES DO SUPPORT HIGH BASED STORMS.  THIS EXPECTED
   TO ONLY RESULT IN A MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL THREAT.
   
   ..HALES/JEWELL.. 08/26/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 2000Z