Sep- 1-2004 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Sep 1 00:45:44 UTC 2004
Categorical Graphic
20040901 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probablistic Tornado Graphic
20040901 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probablistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20040901 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probablistic Large Hail Graphic
20040901 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 010036
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0736 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2004
   
   VALID 010100Z - 011200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S GBN 60 NNW GBN
   25 SSE IGM 60 NNE IGM 25 NE CNY 45 SW LAR 10 WSW MHN 45 SSW MHE 30
   ESE FAR 15 NE INL ...CONT... 15 ESE ANJ 20 SE ESC 15 NW MLI 30 N TOP
   25 W P28 50 NNW ABI 50 S BWD 30 SSE CLL 30 W MCB 25 E MEI 25 SW PSK
   20 NE ORF.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE CTB 55 ENE S80
   60 WNW BOI 55 E MHS 40 NE ACV 20 SE OTH 25 ENE BLI.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SRN MN SWWD INTO NEB...
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WEAK
   LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER CNTRL/E-CNTRL MN SWWD ACROSS NWRN IA INTO
   CNTRL NEB. STRONG HEATING ALONG NEB PORTION OF BOUNDARY HAS ALLOWED
   FOR LOCAL CAP REMOVAL AND INITIATION OF ISOLATED STORMS LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING JUST N OF THE PLATTE RIVER. DESPITE WEAK
   VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES AND RESULTANT MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/
   MAY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR
   MARGINAL HAIL THROUGH 03 OR 04Z.
   
   FARTHER NE...AN ISOLATED STORM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG THIS
   BOUNDARY N OF MCW WITH ADDITIONAL TCU NOTED TO THE W ACROSS N-CNTRL
   IA. 00Z MPX SOUNDING INDICATED COMPARATIVELY STRONGER SHEAR /I.E.
   0-6KM SHEAR OF 35-40KTS/ AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF
   AROUND 1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY-LAYER WAS NOTICEABLY COOLER
   WITH A STRONGER CAP. GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE
   LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS
   CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS
   S-CNTRL/SERN MN INTO N-CNTRL IA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   THEREAFTER...COOLING BOUNDARY-LAYER AND STRENGTHENING CAP SHOULD
   TEND TO DISCOURAGE ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
   
   ..MEAD.. 09/01/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z