SPC AC 041949
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0249 PM CDT SAT SEP 04 2004
   
   VALID 042000Z - 051200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE
   MIA 55 E FMY 35 N FMY 35 ENE PIE 30 SE GNV 45 SSE JAX.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE
   SAD 55 WNW SAD 60 ENE PHX 30 SW INW 35 NNE INW 15 WSW DRO 50 E DRO
   50 S ALS 15 ENE SAF 15 SE ABQ 45 NNE SAD.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N CMX 25 NW EAU 45
   SW FOD 25 SSW CNK 25 E LBL 40 ESE CVS 50 WSW INK 65 SSW MRF
   ...CONT... 10 SSW DRT 35 ESE SJT 35 N BWD 20 E ADM 10 SSW UMN 35 E
   UIN 30 NE MKE 40 N TVC 40 SSE ANJ 80 NE APN ...CONT... 15 WNW ART 35
   NNE UCA 40 W ALB 20 NNE MSV 20 N ABE 30 NNW BWI 40 W SHD 20 WSW BLF
   30 NNE TYS 10 S HSV 25 SW TCL 60 SE MEI 35 N PNS 35 SW DHN 40 WSW
   ABY 55 SW AGS 35 WSW FLO 15 ESE GSB 25 ESE ECG ...CONT... 70 SSW GBN
   35 WSW GBN 55 WSW PRC 25 WSW GCN 20 W BCE 55 E ELY 15 SW ENV 35 SE
   BYI 45 SE IDA 35 WNW LND 50 E RIW 15 SSE GCC 45 NNE BIS 65 NNE DVL.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF FL...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN AZ AND NW NM...
   
   ...CNTRL AND ERN FL...
   HURRICANE FRANCES IS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO THE EAST OF PALM
   BEACH FL. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING NWWD REACHING
   THE IMMEDIATE FL COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE VERY HEAVY
   RAINBANDS NWWD INTO CNTRL AND SRN FL. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR BELOW 700 MB
   HAS INCREASED TODAY AND WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE TONIGHT AS THE
   CENTER APPROACHES THE SHORELINE. AS A RESULT...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
   WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED MINI-SUPERCELLS. THE
   ROTATING STORMS WILL BE EMBEDDED IN THE HEAVY RAINBANDS AND ALONG
   THE EDGE OF THE HURRICANE AS CELLS DEVELOP AND MOVE SWD. THE TORNADO
   THREAT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS FL LATE TONIGHT AS THE CENTER
   BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND.
   
   ...ERN AZ/NW NM...
   A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS
   THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET OF 60 KT...LOCATED ACROSS NE
   AZ AND SW CO. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SOUTHEAST OF THIS FEATURE IS
   RESULTING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN AZ AND
   NWRN NM. AT ABQ...THE VAD WIND PROFILER AT 19Z SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR
   VALUES OF 55 KT. IN ADDITION...SBCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM
   250 TO 750 J/KG. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED
   WITH THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE AN
   ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. INVERTED-V WIND PROFILES COMBINED WITH
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL RESULT IN A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE
   WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST
   TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER-TROUGH MOVES EWD
   REACHING SCNTRL CO AROUND MIDNIGHT.
   
   ...DAKOTAS...
   A LINE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG A SLOW
   MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM FAR NW MN TO CNTRL SD.
   BROADSCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
   MID-LEVEL JET IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
   THE BOUNDARY. DIURNAL HEATING AND MID 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF
   THE FRONT ARE YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF 250 TO 500 J/KG. AND THIS
   COUPLED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM THE ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
   FLOW WILL PROMOTE A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE WEAK INSTABILITY.
   HOWEVER...HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
   STRONGEST CELLS. WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE AND AN
   APPROACHING UPPER-TROUGH...THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE
   OVERNIGHT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 09/04/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z