Sep-17-2004 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Sep 17 01:05:49 UTC 2004
Categorical Graphic
20040917 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probablistic Tornado Graphic
20040917 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probablistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20040917 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probablistic Large Hail Graphic
20040917 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 170055
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0755 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2004
   
   VALID 170100Z - 171200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E
   RMG 20 NNW RMG TYS 25 WNW HKY 30 WSW SOP 10 SE FLO 20 NNW SAV 40 SE
   MCN 20 NNW MCN 20 E ATL 15 E RMG.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PNS 15 S TOI 25 WNW
   AUO 15 ENE BHM 25 SE BNA 40 SW LOZ 45 ENE LEX 20 WSW SDF 40 WSW BMG
   HUF MIE 35 W CLE 25 SW BUF 50 NNW ROC.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PBG 25 WSW EFK
   MPV PSF POU ABE BWI 30 SE NHK 40 ENE ORF.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL HIB MSP MCW SUX
   60 NNE BUB 9V9 PIR BIS 70 NW DVL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE BLI 10 ENE SEA
   20 NNW AST.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW CVS 40 SSW DHT
   55 E LAA 45 N GCK 35 W RSL 25 NNE P28 25 W CSM 10 W LTS 20 WSW SPS
   30 NW MWL 35 S ABI 40 SSE MAF 30 ENE CNM 30 SW CVS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW TUS 60 N TUS 35
   NNW SAD 10 NNW SVC 30 SSW DMN.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   SOUTHEAST STATES....
   
   ...SOUTHEASTERN STATES...
   REMNANTS OF IVAN WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTH NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT
   ...FROM THE BIRMINGHAM AL AREA TO THE VICINITY OF CHATTANOOGA TN. 
   THOUGH SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES
   REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN RISK OF AT LEAST ISOLATED
   TORNADOES.  DESPITE STABILIZING INFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH LOSS OF
   DAYTIME HEATING...MID/UPPER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL MAINTAIN
   WEAK BUOYANCY IN BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG/EAST OF CIRCULATION CENTER
   ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST REGION.  BEST POTENTIAL
   FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY MAY BE WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS MOST
   PRONOUNCED AHEAD OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND...ALONG WEAK BAROCLINIC
   ZONE FROM NORTHEAST GEORGIA INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.
   
   ...OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...
   IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
   INTO EASTERN CANADA...AND AHEAD OF LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
   SUBTROPICAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/REMNANTS OF IVAN...FORCING FOR UPWARD
   VERTICAL MOTION HAS BECOME ENHANCED ALONG FRONT IN THE LEE OF THE
   LOWER GREAT LAKES.  THIS STRONGER LIFT WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP
   EASTWARD NEAR/SOUTH OF THE NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA BORDER OVERNIGHT. 
   ASSOCIATED CONVECTION MAY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 17/06Z...BEFORE
   BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AS BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG/SOUTH OF FRONT
   CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STABILIZE WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
   
   ...PLAINS...
   WHILE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OFF THE PACIFIC
   NORTHWEST COAST TONIGHT...LOW/MID-LEVEL WARMING IS PROGGED FROM THE
   ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.  THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STRENGTHENING
   CAP...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOSTLY LIMITED TO VICINITY OF CREST
   OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
   MINNESOTA...WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS LIFTING MOIST MID-LEVEL
   PARCELS TO THEIR LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION.
   
   ...SOUTHERN PLATEAU/ROCKIES...
   ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA/SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO
   SHOULD DIMINISH NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
   
   ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...
   MOIST ONSHORE FLOW FOCUSED INTO THE WASHINGTON CASCADES/OLYMPICS MAY
   SUPPORT OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS AS MID-LEVELS COOL OVERNIGHT.
   
   ..KERR.. 09/17/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z