Sep-21-2004 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Sep 21 00:45:44 UTC 2004
Categorical Graphic
20040921 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probablistic Tornado Graphic
20040921 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probablistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20040921 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probablistic Large Hail Graphic
20040921 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 210038
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0738 PM CDT MON SEP 20 2004
   
   VALID 210100Z - 211200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSW GDP 10 S CNM
   20 SSW CVS 10 N CAO 40 N LHX 25 SSW COS 15 NW ALS 40 ESE DRO 65 S
   4BL 50 NNW GCN 25 NW LAS 15 NW DAG 20 NNE BFL 15 WNW FAT 40 WNW U31
   50 SW OWY BOI 75 NW FCA ...CONT... 60 ENE CTB 45 NNE BZN 45 SW BIL
   30 S SHR 35 SSE GCC 20 NNE RAP 35 SW BIS 70 NNW DVL ...CONT... 55
   ENE ELO 25 SSW MSP 25 WNW OMA 25 SSW EAR 40 S HLC 10 W DDC 30 WNW
   GAG 35 SSW CDS 55 SSE MAF 25 SE P07.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N BML 25 ESE EEN
   BDL 35 NNW POU 40 SE UCA 20 ENE MSS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N PIE 40 SSE JAX.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...PARTS OF CENTRAL PLAINS TO ERN SD...
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SRN NV/ERN CA...WILL
   CONTINUE TO ROTATE EWD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND WITHIN
   BASE OF POSITIVELY TILTED LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES. 
   DOWNSTREAM SSWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM THE SRN
   ROCKIES TO THE DAKOTAS/MN...RESULTING IN SLOW E AND S MOVEMENT OF
   COLD FRONT ACROSS MN AND SD/NEB.
   
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM NERN CO
   TO NEB AND ERN SD AS MOIST...ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES PER 
   STRENGTHENING CENTRAL PLAINS LLJ AT 40-50 KT.  RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
   OF STRONG UPPER JET WILL REMAIN OVER THIS AREA AS WELL...MAINTAINING
   DEEP LAYER ASCENT ALONG/NORTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT MARGINAL ELEVATED
   INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT.
   
   ..PETERS.. 09/21/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z