SPC AC 250528
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1228 AM CDT SAT SEP 25 2004
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE
   MIA 45 NE FMY 40 ENE PIE 15 SSW GNV 30 W JAX 10 NNE SSI.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW HYA 30 NE EKN
   30 E PKB 25 NW HLG 15 W FKL 15 NW ROC.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW CTY 35 S SAV.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FHU 40 SSW INW 25 W
   EGE 30 ESE CYS 25 WNW MHN 10 N EAR 50 NE HLC 55 SW HLC 40 SSW LBL 30
   WNW CDS 40 W SPS 35 NE JBR MKL 30 NE UOX 15 NNW ESF 15 W 7R4.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE FL
   PENINSULA...
   
   ...FL...
   
   HURRICANE JEANNE LOCATED E OF THE BAHAMAS IS MOVING WWD AT 10 KT AND
   IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MOTION NEXT 24 HOURS. THE STORM IS
   FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN A TURN TO
   THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH SOMETIME AFTER LANDFALL. HOWEVER... EXACTLY
   WHEN JEANNE WILL BEGIN THE MORE NWD TURN IS STILL SOMEWHAT
   UNCERTAIN. SEE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM NHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS. GIVEN
   THIS UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL FOR FARTHER INLAND PENETRATION...HAVE
   DECIDED TO EXPAND THE SLIGHT RISK WWD. GIVEN CURRENT FORECAST
   TRACK...THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE FROM LATE
   AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CNTRL THROUGH NRN
   FL COASTS N AND E OF THE CENTER. THREAT MAY SPREAD FARTHER INLAND
   OVERNIGHT.
   
   
   ...NERN STATES AND NEW ENGLAND...
   
   POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
   NEWD INTO ONTARIO WILL DE AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES EWD OVER THE MEAN
   RIDGE POSITION AND INTO THE NERN STATES AND SE CANADA SATURDAY. A
   COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE INTO THE NERN U.S. AND SHOULD
   EXTEND FROM WRN MAINE SWWD THROUGH NY AND PA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   SUBTROPICAL MOIST PLUME WITH HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING NEWD THROUGH THE
   OH VALLEY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NE U.S. AND MAY TEND TO LIMIT
   DEGREE OF SURFACE HEATING. THIS ALONG WITH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES AND MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT MLCAPE TO BELOW
   1000 J/KG.
   
   GIVEN TENDENCY FOR UPPER TROUGH TO DE AMPLIFY... PRE-FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD REMAIN MODEST AND VEERED TO WSWLY. 
   HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE OH VALLEY SHOULD ADVECT ENEWD
   INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM 55 TO 60 EXPECTED.
   CONVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER FORCING IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY IS
   NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG AND MAY WEAKEN WITH TIME AS
   THE UPPER TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES. STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN FRONTAL ZONE
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE NERN U.S. AND NEW ENGLAND AS THE ATMOSPHERE
   DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. MARGINAL THREAT OF ISOLATED
   STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY EXIST WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...
   GIVEN PREVIOUSLY LIMITING FACTORS...SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
   WARRANT MORE THAN 5% WIND PROBABILITIES.
   
   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   
   
   ELY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL SUPPORT STORMS PERSISTING OFF
   THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM AND W
   TX. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO CONTINUE INTO THE
   MORNING FARTHER WEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN NM WITHIN REGION
   OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING SRN STREAM
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DEBRIS FROM THE PERSISTENT OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
   MAY SERVE TO LIMIT OR DELAY DESTABILIZATION OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA
   SATURDAY. WHERE SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR... ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
   DEVELOP WITHIN UPSLOPE REGIME OF ERN NM AS WELL A ALONG RESIDUAL
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ONCE
   AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR
   TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
   
   ..DIAL/CROSBIE.. 09/25/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z