Sep-28-2004 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Sep 28 05:25:49 UTC 2004
Categorical Graphic
20040928 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probablistic Tornado Graphic
20040928 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probablistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20040928 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probablistic Large Hail Graphic
20040928 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 280519
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1219 AM CDT TUE SEP 28 2004
   
   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S
   EWN 30 NE FAY 30 SSE DAN 30 SE LYH 35 NNE RIC 35 SE DOV.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN DRA 45 WNW
   BIH 35 NNE RBL 35 ENE ACV 50 ESE OTH 30 SE PDX 40 N BOI 25 ESE 27U
   60 SE HVR 20 SSW P24 25 E Y22 25 NNE CYS 15 S DEN 35 WSW LHX 50 SW
   RSL 40 ENE BVO 30 E MLC 10 WSW ADM 20 WSW LTS 35 NNW ABI 15 NNE SAT
   20 ESE CRP.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIE 25 SE DAB.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MRF 20 SSW ALM
   30 NNW SVC DUG.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E CRE 35 SW GSO 30
   SSW SHD 25 S JFK.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW OWY 75 NNW WMC
   20 S LOL 30 NW TPH 40 WSW ELY 15 SE ENV TWF 40 NNW OWY.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NERN NC / SERN VA / SRN
   MD / SRN DE...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM JET WILL REMAIN
   GENERALLY CONFINED TO CANADA THIS PERIOD...THOUGH A
   POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WITHIN THE NRN STREAM WILL BRUSH THE GREAT
   LAKES / NERN CONUS THIS PERIOD.  FURTHER WEST...RELATIVELY WEAK /
   BROAD TROUGH -- COMPRISED OF SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE LOWS / SHORT-WAVE
   TROUGHS -- WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE WRN U.S. THROUGH THE
   PERIOD.  
   
   MAIN FEATURE IN TERMS OF SEVERE THREAT THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN THE
   REMNANTS OF JEANNE...FORECAST INVOF THE N CENTRAL SC / S CENTRAL NC
   BORDER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.  WEAKENING LOW IS FORECAST TO
   MOVE NEWD WITH TIME AND SHOULD REACH THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY BY
   29/00Z...AT WHICH TIME IT SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF MERGING WITH
   SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED NERN U.S.
   UPPER TROUGH.  REMNANTS OF JEANNE -- ALONG WITH COLD FRONT -- WILL
   SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
   PERIOD.
   
   ...NERN NC / SERN VA / SRN DE / SRN MD...
   ALTHOUGH TUESDAY SHOULD PROVE LESS ACTIVE THAN MONDAY IN TERMS OF
   TORNADO POTENTIAL...FAVORABLY MOIST / SUFFICIENTLY-SHEARED LOW-LEVEL
   AIRMASS IS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AHEAD OF
   TC JEANNE TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.  ALTHOUGH JEANNE IS
   FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...LIMITED HEATING /
   DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC MAY OFFSET ANY
   WEAKENING OF THE WIND FIELD...ALLOWING ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT TO
   PERSIST / SHIFT NEWD TOWARD THE DELMARVA REGION THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON.
   
   BY LATE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING...TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
   TAPER OFF WITH JEANNE FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE / MERGE WITH COLD
   FRONT IN THE 29/00-03Z TIME FRAME.
   
   ..GOSS.. 09/28/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z