SPC AC 141616
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1116 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2004
   
   VALID 141630Z - 151200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW
   BVE 30 E MOB 25 SSE TOI 25 N ABY 20 SE SAV ...CONT... 40 SSE JAX 30
   NNW PIE.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE DOV 20 ENE PHL
   35 S POU 15 ESE BOS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNW GFK 55 NE ATY
   25 NE BKX 20 SE HON 35 ENE PIR 35 SSE BIS 45 N MOT.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE DRT 35 E DRT 45
   ENE LRD 15 NE ALI 50 SSE VCT.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BPT 25 SSW HEZ
   30 SE JAN 40 SSW CBM 40 ENE DYR 30 SSE FDY 25 SSE CAK 10 ENE HLG 20
   SW SSU 30 ESE DAN 35 ESE ECG.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE NE GULF COAST
   EWD TO THE NE FL AND GA COASTS....
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MAJOR AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS UNDERWAY
   WITH ONE INTENSE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD OVER AR/MO
   AND ANOTHER NRN STREAM WAVE DIGGING SEWD TOWARD THE DAKOTAS AND
   MN...RESULTING IN A BROAD/DEEP TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY.  AT THE
   SURFACE...A BROAD LOW ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY SHOULD
   GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN INVOF OH AS THE AR/MO SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH /WITH 12 HR 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 130 M/ ROTATES EWD THEN
   NEWD BY LATE TONIGHT.  S OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE...A COLD FRONT
   WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
   TODAY...REACHING THE NE GULF COAST AND APPALACHIANS BY LATER
   TONIGHT.  THE PRIMARY THREAT AREAS FOR DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE
   ACROSS THE GULF COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT...AND NRN
   PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING NRN STREAM TROUGH.
   
   ...NE GULF COAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
   A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
   INVOF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.  THE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS OVER THE GULF
   IS IN THE PROCESS OF MODIFYING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM EXITING THE
   MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH THE RICHER MOISTURE AND STRONGER
   INSTABILITY CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS THE NW
   GULF.  THERE WILL BE SOME TENDENCY FOR LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE NE GULF COAST BY THIS EVENING
   IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...THOUGH LIMITED MERIDIONAL MOISTURE
   TRANSPORT AND RATHER POOR UPSTREAM LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT
   INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL ACROSS INLAND AREAS.  PRESENT
   INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE
   ACROSS THE GULF...WITH THE LINE EXPECTED TO EXPAND NEWD ACROSS THE
   NE GULF COAST BY TONIGHT.  GIVEN RELATIVELY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW
   AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FRONT...EXPECT
   DAMAGING WINDS WITH A SQUALL LINE TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT.
   
   ...S FL AREA...
   A WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME WILL
   SPREAD SLOWLY NWD/NEWD ACROSS THE KEYS AND S FL LATER TODAY AND
   TONIGHT...WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE
   TONIGHT.  MEANWHILE...WIND FIELDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS S FL IN
   RESPONSE TO THE MS VALLEY SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THE NET RESULT SHOULD
   BE MOIST PROFILES WITH AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP
   LAYER SPEED SHEAR...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WITH
   STRONG WIND GUSTS LATE TONIGHT.
   
   ..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 10/14/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 2000Z