SPC AC 151611
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1111 AM CDT FRI OCT 15 2004
   
   VALID 151630Z - 161200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S
   ORF 25 SE RIC 30 NE RIC 10 ENE DCA 30 ESE BWI 10 N DOV 30 SSW ACY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N PIE 10 WNW DAB
   ...CONT... 25 ESE SAV 30 SW FAY 20 SE DAN 10 NNE EKN 25 NW HLG 25
   ENE FWA 25 WSW LAN 40 SE OSC.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW 3B1 BHB.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS DELMARVA...
   
   ...DELMARVA...
   VERY STRONG TROUGHS ROTATING THRU THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH POSITION
   OVER ERN U.S.  THE S/WV INITIALLY AT 12Z FROM OH VALLEY SWD WITH
   ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WRN OH WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC
   STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM DROPS
   SEWD WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER LWR MI SAT AM
   WITH VERY STRONG MID/UPPER JET ACROSS TN VALLEY.
   
   AT THE SURFACE AN INTENSIFYING LOW MOVES NWD FROM LE ACROSS LH THIS
   AFTERNOON WITH FURTHER DEEPENING SERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. THE COLD
   FRONT CURRENTLY FROM WRN PA SWD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN RIDGE WITH
   MODELS SUGGESTING A SURFACE WAVE FORMING THIS AFTERNOON DELMARVA AS 
   THE STRONG UPWARD MOTION IMPLIED BY THE 180M 12HR 500 MB HEIGHT
   FALLS AT ILN ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA.
   
   THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE THE
   VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  WITH LIMITED HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
   AND DEWPOINTS ONLY INTO THE LOW 60S...MUCAPES EXPECTED TO BE 500
   J/KG OR LESS.  HOWEVER WITH SFC-1KM SHEAR OF 20-25KT IN PLACE
   COUPLED WITH THE 80 PLUS KT 500 MB WIND MAX ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA
   DURING AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE S/WV TROUGH...CONDITIONS
   WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED GENERALLY LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS
   ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES E OF BLUE RIDGE.  PRIMARY THREAT
   EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN 60 KT OF DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR...HOWEVER ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
   GIVEN THE STRONG KINEMATICS.
   
   THE SEVERE THREAT WILL MOVE EWD AND OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING WITH
   THE COLD FRONT AS THE SURFACE WAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NEWD TOWARD
   SRN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
   
   ...SRN FL...
   FRONTAL CONVECTION MOVING SEWD ACROSS SRN FL WILL CLEAR THE
   PENINSULA BY LATER THIS EVENING.  AIR MASS AHEAD OF FRONT SUPPORTS
   ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE
   SMALL AS THE DEEP TROPICAL AIR IS NOW S AND E OF FL. THERE WILL BE A
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST WITH STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
   THRU THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE 40-50KT OF DEEP LAYER FLOW AND MUCAPES
   UPWARDS TO 2000 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS COULD
   DEVELOP SERN COAST PROVIDED SEA BREEZE FRONT CAN SET UP INLAND GIVEN
   THE STRONG WLY COMPONENT. ANY STORM ALONG SEA BREEZE WOULD BE IN AN
   ENHANCED AREA OF SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
   
   ..HALES/JEWELL.. 10/15/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 2000Z