Nov- 7-2004 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Nov 7 16:34:04 UTC 2004
Categorical Graphic
20041107 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probablistic Tornado Graphic
20041107 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probablistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20041107 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probablistic Large Hail Graphic
20041107 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 071627
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1027 AM CST SUN NOV 07 2004
   
   VALID 071630Z - 081200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE VBG 40 SSE FAT
   45 ESE BIH 50 N DRA 20 S P38 20 ENE SGU 40 NNW GCN 25 ENE FLG 50 WSW
   SOW 50 WSW SAD 15 SSE FHU.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...
   UPPER LOW NOW OFF THE SRN CA CST EXPECTED TO EJECT ENE TO NEAR DAG
   BY 12Z MONDAY AS SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE THAT UPSTREAM PATTERN HAS
   BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN PACIFIC.  ELSEWHERE...
   DRY W TO NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE LWR
   48.
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH CORE OF UPPER LOW SHOULD SPREAD E INTO
   CSTL SRN CA LATER TODAY.  ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BUILD E
   TOWARD THE LWR CO VLY BY EARLY EVENING AS SURFACE HEATING AND
   INCREASING 700 MB MOISTURE/ASCENT INTERACT WITH TERRAIN.
   
   CONTINUED E/NE MOTION OF UPPER LOW WILL SPREAD THUNDER THREAT EWD
   INTO SRN NV AND PERHAPS FAR WRN AZ TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. 
   FARTHER E...EMBEDDED THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY INTENSIFYING WARM
   CONVEYOR BELT CONVECTIVE BAND OVER AZ. LIMITED DEGREE OF ELEVATED
   INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS BAND SUGGESTS THAT ANY SUCH ACTIVITY SHOULD
   REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED.
   
   ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 11/07/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z