Nov- 8-2004 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Nov 8 16:26:03 UTC 2004
Categorical Graphic
20041108 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probablistic Tornado Graphic
20041108 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probablistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20041108 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probablistic Large Hail Graphic
20041108 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 081620
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1020 AM CST MON NOV 08 2004
   
   VALID 081630Z - 091200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E SBA 20 NW EDW 20
   E NID 70 W DRA 50 ESE BIH 25 NE BIH 55 NNE BIH 65 ENE U31 EVW 35 SW
   RKS 15 NNW GUC 20 ESE 4SL 45 ENE TCS 20 W ELP.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...
   UPPER LOW NOW OVER SRN CA EXPECTED TO TRACK NE TO NEAR LAS LATER
   TODAY...BEFORE CONTINUING INTO W CNTRL OR S CNTRL UT BY 12Z TUESDAY.
    SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW APPROACHING SRN-MOST
   PART OF LOW NEAR SAN.  THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD ROTATE NE ACROSS NRN
   AZ LATER TODAY...AND REACH NW NM/SW CO EARLY TUESDAY.  WELL SE OF
   THE CA LOW...A CONVEYOR ORIGINATING DEEP IN THE TROPICS WILL SPREAD
   HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS TX THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   
   SCATTERED DIURNALLY ENHANCED THUNDER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PRECEDE
   AND ACCOMPANY UPPER VORT CROSSING PARTS OF SRN CA...SRN NV ...NW AZ
   AND SW UT LATER TODAY. ONE OR TWO CELLS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL
   GIVEN COOL /AOB MINUS 20 C/ 500 MB TEMPERATURES...PRESENCE OF
   MOISTURE AT 700 MB /DEWPOINTS AROUND 0 C/...AND OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT
   OVER NW AZ/SE NV/SW UT.
   
   FARTHER SE...MORE ISOLATED/EMBEDDED THUNDER EXPECTED TO PERSIST
   ALONG COLD FRONT OVER CNTRL/ERN AZ NE TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS
   REGION.  UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF DEEP SSWLY FLOW AND CLOUDINESS IN
   FRONTAL BAND SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL DESPITE STRENGTH OF 
   SHEAR AND SUSTAINED LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT.
   
   ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 11/08/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z