SPC AC 111625
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1025 AM CST THU NOV 11 2004
   
   VALID 111630Z - 121200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MFE 40 S CRP.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW LCH 30 SSW ESF
   35 SSW MLU 40 SSW PBF 25 WSW LIT 55 N HOT 30 S UMN 50 NNW SGF 20 NNE
   VIH 35 SE BMG 10 SW UNI 25 SSW EKN 20 ESE ROA 40 WNW GSO 20 W CLT 30
   WNW AGS 60 SE MCN 25 WNW CTY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW UKI 15 ENE SVE
   35 NNE OWY 20 NW MLD 45 NE RKS 15 S RWL 30 W FCL 55 S 4FC 35 S GUC
   25 S 4BL 20 SE SGU 35 NE BFL 10 SSW MRY.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   CLOSED LOW NOW CENTERED OVER NW AR /NEAR HRO/ HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT
   SINCE YESTERDAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY AND FRIDAY
   AS IT HEADS FARTHER E INTO CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE ERN U.S.  AT THE
   SURFACE...LOW NOW N OF LIT SHOULD SLOWLY FILL AS IT HEADS E TO NEAR
   MEM THIS EVENING AND TO NEAR HSV FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT SURFACE
   PATTERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED BY /1/ PRESENCE OF SQUALL LINE
   WHICH DEVELOPED FROM LAST EVENING'S STORMS AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING
   ACROSS SE AR/NW MS.../2/ COLD FRONT NOW OVER WRN LA...AND /3/
   DEVELOPMENT OF SEPARATE WARM/STATIONARY FRONT WHICH ATTM EXTENDS N
   FROM THE CNTRL GULF INTO WRN AL.  ALL OF THESE FEATURES WILL LIKELY
   SERVE TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD.
   
   ...CNTRL GULF CST TO LWR TN VLY...
   MODEST SURFACE HEATING...LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF NW AR UPPER
   VORT AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION AT MID LEVELS SHOULD DESTABILIZE REGION
   JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW CROSSING ERN AR/W TN AND NRN MS LATER
   TODAY...BOOSTING AFTERNOON MLCAPE TO NEAR 500 J/KG.  WITH 40-45 KT
   WSWLY 500 MB FLOW PRESENT TO ENHANCE DEEP SHEAR...SETUP MAY SUPPORT
   THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE
   SUPERCELLS POSING A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND.  THIS
   ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AND MAY EXTEND AS FAR N
   AS EXTREME SE MO/SW KY.
   
   FARTHER S...A SEPARATE AREA OF LOCALLY ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT MAY
   DEVELOP IN WEDGE OF FAIRLY RICH GULF RETURN FLOW BOUNDED BY LA/AR
   COLD FRONT/SQUALL LINE ON THE WEST AND AL/FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE
   STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON THE EAST.  MLCAPE IN THIS REGION IS ALREADY
   AROUND 500 J/KG AND SHOULD CLIMB TO NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH SURFACE
   HEATING LATER IN THE DAY.  BUT...WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
   EXIST ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
   ASCENT WILL BE WEAK.  THIS...COUPLED WITH COMPARATIVELY MODEST MID
   LEVEL FLOW /500 MB SPEEDS AOB 35 KTS/...SUGGESTS THAT POTENTIAL FOR
   SUSTAINED SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LOW.  BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW
   AND LOW LCLS INVOF BOUNDARY IN AL/FAR WRN FL MAY NEVERTHELESS YIELD
   A BRIEF TORNADO IN THAT REGION.  ISOLATED WIND GUSTS SHOULD POSE THE
   GREATEST THREAT WITH ANY STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT/SQUALL LINE.
   
   ...CNTRL CA INTO NV...
   A FEW DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY
   AFFECT NRN PARTS OF THE CNTRL VLY OF CA AND PARTS OF CNTRL NV LATER
   TODAY...AS SRN MEMBER OF REX-TYPE BLOCK EDGES SLOWLY E ACROSS
   REGION.
   
   ..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 11/11/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z