Nov-14-2004 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Nov 14 20:09:51 UTC 2004
Categorical Graphic
20041114 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probablistic Tornado Graphic
20041114 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probablistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20041114 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probablistic Large Hail Graphic
20041114 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 142002
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0202 PM CST SUN NOV 14 2004
   
   VALID 142000Z - 151200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW FHU 20 NNE FHU
   45 WSW SVC 30 S TCS 25 WNW ROW 15 SSE CVS 25 S AMA 35 NW LTS 25 ENE
   SPS 20 N FTW 30 NE ACT 30 ENE CLL 15 NE GLS.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   AN UPPER-LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SIT AND SPIN NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH
   SLY FLOW ALOFT PRESENT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. IN RESPONSE...STRONG
   MOISTURE ADVECTION AT LOW-LEVELS IS RIDING NWD OVER A DOME OF SFC
   HIGH PRESSURE. AS A RESULT...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IS OCCURRING
   ACROSS SW TX WHICH COMBINED WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY...IS HELPING
   TO INITIATE NEW STORMS IN THE MTNS OF FAR W TX AND NEAR THE RIO
   GRANDE. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TONIGHT...CONVECTIVE
   COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AND BANDS OF ELEVATED STORMS WILL SPREAD
   NWD ACROSS WCNTRL AND NRN TX.
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING OFF THE LOWER TX COAST WHICH IS DUE TO
   STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. ONSHORE FLOW IN
   THE LOWER TO MID-LEVELS MAY HELP THE STORMS MOVE INLAND THIS
   EVENING.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 11/14/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z