SPC AC 161222
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0622 AM CST TUE NOV 16 2004
   
   VALID 161300Z - 171200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW
   DRT 50 NE DRT 30 N SAT 55 NW VCT 20 SSE PSX.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W ELP 45 NW ROW 35
   S DHT 15 ENE DDC 35 SSW EMP 30 SSW CNU 15 NE GGG 40 SW POE 25 E 7R4.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTH TX...
   
   ...TX...
   SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO
   FOR MOST OF TODAY BEFORE OVERSPREADING WRN TX OVERNIGHT.  ASSOCIATED
   MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT
   SHIFTS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
   THE PERIOD.  GIVEN OVERALL SLOW MOVEMENT OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW...
   CURRENT SURFACE FEATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
   PERIOD...WITH INVERTED TROUGH/WEAK LOW CENTER PERSISTING OVER WRN
   TX.  THIS WILL SUSTAIN ESELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS SRN TX AND
   ALLOW UPPER 60F TO LOWER 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS TO ADVECT WNWWD INTO
   THE HILL COUNTRY TODAY.  HEATING AND MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH
   MLCAPES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG. 
   
   AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN VERY MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE SOUTH TX COAST TODAY...AS EVIDENCED BY WEAK
   INHIBITION IN 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM BRO AND CRP.  HOWEVER...PRIMARY
   THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER
   TODAY AND TONIGHT COINCIDENT WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
   STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT.  DEEP CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS ACTIVITY
   EVOLVING AWAY FROM THE HILL COUNTRY/RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY BECOME
   MORE LINEAR IN NATURE AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WINDS AS IT MOVES ENEWD OVERNIGHT.
   
   ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 11/16/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z